Taylor to slash migration by two-thirds in bid to rival One Nation

Opposition Leader Angus Taylor will aim to halt One Nation’s momentum by revealing he would slash migration to about a third of the current intake – a larger-than-expected reduction the party claims would not hurt Australia’s ailing budget and economy.

Multiple sources who were unable to provide full detail ahead of the policy’s release on Tuesday said the party would reduce net migration to about 100,000 in the first year should it win the election.

The opposition is choosing to pivot back to migration, an issue that has driven voters to Hanson, a week after Labor was widely criticised by economists over its handling of inflation and interest rates, which rose to a 15-year-high.

Taylor continues to trail One Nation and Labor by the same margin Sussan Ley was recording before he replaced her in February. The Coalition has been desperate to neutralise the issue of migration, which has sparked similar cultural debates in peer democracies and has turned into a central political issue in Canberra.

Taylor, whose leadership may come under pressure if Hanson’s ascendancy is not pegged back by next year, will use a fully costed plan to create a contrast with his populist opponents. One Nation’s September backflip on negative migration was widely criticised for failing to include forecasts on economic effects or labour supply.

Multiple Coalition sources said Taylor pushed MPs to keep seeking updated advice from the parliamentary budget office to drive migration down as low as possible without damaging the economy. The final advice from the official costings office shows the Coalition’s proposals would be budget-neutral over the four-year budget period, party sources said, though this masthead has not seen the advice.

The opposition is expected to claim that a reworking of the skills program to bring in more sought-after workers would offset lower tax revenue prompted by the reduction in workforce numbers.

“This will be the Liberal way: focused on the economy,” one party figure said.

Visa-hopping will be curtailed under the Coalition’s plan by forcing candidates such as international students to go offshore if they want to apply for another visa, which could push temporary migrants to leave Australia permanently.

The Coalition has also flagged a list of “safe” nations to allow for speedier rejections of protection visas. This masthead revealed in August that at least 230 citizens of the United Kingdom applied for asylum in the last year, in a clear sign that the refugee system was being abused by people who want to stay in the country longer.

Tougher barriers to the return of Australians involved with the Islamic State regime will also be included.

The 100,000 figure would probably increase under a program by which migration is linked to the number of houses built in future years. But the new net overseas target is far lower than the approximately 170,000 previously flagged by Taylor (tied to the number of completed houses last year), underlining the extent to which political parties have firmed against the current migration settings.

The opposition’s full migration policy will be the third overhaul released by the top parties in the past two months, following the One Nation’s uncosted plan and Labor’s reforms that created friction in the cabinet over how a lower intake would affect the economy.

Labor announced last month it would stop students bringing in family members and rein in backpacker numbers to lower net migration from 292,000 to 225,000 over two years. The Coalition has been critical of Labor’s large cuts to working holidaymakers, which hurts regional businesses; it will put greater emphasis on students.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has repeatedly emphasised the budget and labour supply in critical industries are underpinned by migration – an issue on which One Nation is setting the agenda.

Hanson’s party unveiled a major U-turn in September when it announced it would ditch its 130,000 target and push for an unspecified negative migration target. It released no forecasts about fiscal or economic consequences, which business groups and economists said could be recessionary.

The Coalition policy’s key focus is the 3 million temporary migrants. This cohort has been cited as a key problem by former bureaucrats Martin Parkinson and Abul Rizvi. “Visa-hopping” among this group has increasingly been observed as a loophole for international students to become “temporary permanent” migrants.

This masthead reported on September 16 that Taylor and Nationals counterpart Matt Canavan split after Canavan argued internally for negative migration, mirroring Hanson’s policy. Top MPs have since kept working on the policy instead of rushing out with a response to Hanson’s policy, which came without costings on the same week she was being criticised for other matters.

Like Labor and One Nation, Taylor and opposition home affairs spokesman Jonno Duniam will promise more resources to deport the 77,000 unlawful non-citizens. Greens leader David Shoebridge has characterised these moves as in line with the Trump administration’s ICE agency and demonstrative of Australia’s “race to the bottom” on migration.

Taylor will host a party room meeting on Tuesday to sign off on the changes after internal criticisms that some policies had not been approved by MPs.

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