Immigration set to be battleground issue in next election

The Coalition’s new immigration policy appears to have been drafted under the heavy shadow of One Nation’s blunt-stick approach.

But whether it constitutes a viable alternative to Pauline Hanson’s slash-and-burn ideas and the Albanese government’s more modest proposals remains buried in the hidden economic details.

One thing is evident, however: immigration is now Australia’s hot potato political issue and will be a major battleground in election campaigns.

Opposition Leader Angus Taylor announced a plan on Tuesday reducing the number of temporary visa holders by about 650,000 over four years, the “biggest cut to immigration in the history of the country”. He’ll impose a net overseas migration cap of 100,000 in 2028-29, 130,000 in 2030-31 and 160,000 in 2031-32, and target graduates, bridging visas and foreign students, with a few measures around the side to reduce the numbers of refugees and British backpackers.

“Australia should be a home, not a hotel. And right now, we’re seeing under Labor a guest worker economy,” Taylor said.

The opposition’s migration policy announcement is the third overhaul by major parties in the past month, with One Nation slashing the temporary migration program by more than 750,000 and Labor turning to regulatory changes – including a crackdown on backpackers and students – to achieve new targets after talks with the Coalition over stronger legislation broke down following cabinet friction over how a lower intake would affect the economy.

Historically, both Labor and Coalition governments have used short-term visas to distract from failures in workplace and skills development. This has opened the door to One Nation’s simplistic and heavy-handed policy to reduce immigration numbers that is primarily targeted at disenchanted voters concerned about jobs, housing, access to services and personal safety.

One Nation is riding high in opinion polls since Taylor replaced Sussan Ley last February, partly by playing the politics of division, especially on immigration and the spectre of Pauline Hanson looms large over Coalition heartlands.

Taylor had to promise big to seize the initiative from the Hansonites, especially after One Nation initially announced it supported negative migration levels. Hanson said Australians have “had enough of mass migration” and accused the major parties of sacrificing living standards to “serve vested interests”.

But immigration should not be a political football. Immigration is a good thing for Australia and the bedrock we built our nation upon.

It is right and proper that we debate the overall number of migrants, and the types of visa holders we admit, but the debate must avoid the danger of descending into reactionary knee-jerk populism.

Hanson was rightly pilloried for the economic impact of her immigration policy, with some critics warning it may spark a recession. Even some of her supporters argued the toss. The Coalition is undoubtedly mindful of the potential to harm regional economies and farm workforces.

Taylor has astutely proffered a kind of Hanson-lite on immigration and tried to thread the needle between One Nation and Labor to appeal to the waverers in his splintered heartlands. He promised reforms were budget-neutral with costings to be released closer to the 2028 federal election.

Meanwhile, all decent politicians must ensure the issue is debated sensibly and not turned into an excuse for migrant bashing.

Get a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion and inform your own. Sign up for our Opinion newsletter.