TEHRAN – Saudi Arabia spends tens of billions of dollars on arms every year, but is struggling to protect key assets such as airports, refineries and pipelines from missiles and drones fired by Ansarallah, also called the Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF).
Despite acquiring state-of-the-art weapons systems from the United States and Europe and possessing multi-layered air defenses, the kingdom has seen deadly attacks on the main airport serving the capital, Riyadh, over the past week.
Saudi Arabia spent $83 billion on defense last year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, putting it firmly among the top ten military spenders worldwide. It has acquired U.S. fighter jets as well as Patriot and THAAD air defense systems, and a range of advanced weaponry from France and the United Kingdom.
Ansarallah have learned to combine ballistic and cruise missiles with long-range drones to overwhelm Saudi defenses. The approach resembles Russia’s playbook: Moscow has frequently used a mass of drones along with cruise and ballistic missiles in barrages against Ukraine.
Cruise missiles fly at lower altitudes, making them harder to identify and track. Ansarallah have also introduced a new generation of ballistic missiles that are maneuverable.
No single air defense system can guarantee that every incoming threat will be intercepted.
Experts note that the latest Ansarallah missiles, such as the Hatem-2 and the Palestine-2, are fast and accurate.
Last year, an Ansarallah missile evaded Israel’s vaunted air defenses and impacted near Ben Gurion airport. Analyst Amir Bar Shalom told CNN at the time: “They were very accurate, and to be very accurate if you’re launching from 2,000 kilometers, it’s impressive.”
Pandora’s box opened in March 2015
Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Mohammed bin Salman, opened Pandora’s box in March 2015 when he ordered an attack on Ansarallah in support of Yemen’s government, which was aligned with Riyadh. At the time, he vowed that Saudi Arabia would crush Ansarallah within weeks. Despite receiving logistical and intelligence support from the United States, the war against Ansarallah turned into a humiliating ordeal for the Saudi kingdom.
Seven years of conflict with Saudi Arabia — from 2015 to 2022 — caused immense suffering in Ansarallah-controlled parts of Yemen, and an economic and transport embargo has continued since.
Ultimately, that led Ansarallah in July to declare they would attack Saudi shipping in the Red Sea – and the campaign of missile strikes began soon afterwards, initially targeting an Aramco oil refinery on the Red Sea coast and Saudi airbases.
Ansarallah are demanding an end to Saudi airstrikes in support of its proxies in Yemen, as well as billions of dollars in compensation from Saudi Arabia.
Iran has offered to mediate between Riyadh and Ansarallah. On Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran was ready to provide “any assistance necessary to facilitate the start of talks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen.”
Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of Ansarallah’s political bureau, said on Monday that Riyadh had accepted mediation but Ansarallah had rejected truce proposals of two weeks and of one month.
“The battle this time is not like its predecessors; the arena is no longer the same arena,” al-Bukhaiti said. “Every day that passes in this battle will expand its scope and deepen its losses, and the settlement that is possible today may become difficult or impossible tomorrow.”
Escalation, through even more intense airstrikes, would bring the risk of further missile attacks that would undermine the goal of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to make Saudi Arabia a world-class destination for investment, technology and tourism.
The stakes extend beyond the oil industry. Data centers, desalination plants and airports underpin the kingdom’s technology ambitions, water supply and tourism economy. The crown prince’s marquee investment event in Riyadh later this month will put his pitch to international investors in the spotlight.
But major corporations shied away this week from the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh.
Defeating Ansarallah forces through a ground offensive involving Saudi-backed Yemeni forces seems highly unlikely. Ansarallah forces are entrenched, battle-hardened and know the mountainous terrain. They have inflicted heavy losses on the Saudi-backed forces in the last month.
Last year, the U.S. spent more than $1 billion on a seven-week campaign of air-strikes against them. They eventually agreed not to attack U.S. shipping in the Red Sea but remained very much in place – and in the meantime shot down a number of highly advanced U.S. Reaper drones.
If anything, Ansarallah, who may have as many as 350,000 men under arms, are on the front foot. They have now encircled the city of Taiz, Yemen’s third largest and a vital logistical hub, the Institute for the Study of War said on Monday.
The Saudis are seeking to mobilize an international coalition against Ansarallah. Regional allies have offered help in the way of defensive systems. Pakistan has sent thousands of troops to help defend the kingdom. Egypt has offered whatever support is asked for.
The Saudis may also be able to procure more air defense systems from Europe and the U.S., after running down shipments delivered at the start of the war against Iran.
But the U.S. itself is short of such systems. A report by the U.S. Defense Department’s Inspector-General said the campaign against Iran had “resulted in strategic inventory shortfalls and revealed industrial base bottlenecks for munitions resupply.”
And with mid-term elections three weeks away, Donald Trump is wary of yet another entanglement in the Middle East. He has been non-committal about direct U.S. strikes against Ansarallah, while not ruling them out.
“U.S. reluctance to get involved stokes the perception that the United States has abandoned a partner at its moment of greatest need,” according to Michael Ratney at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Writing before the airport strikes, Ratney – a former ambassador in Riyadh – added: “The kingdom is under attack, and as a political matter, it has to retaliate. But ultimately, we should expect a return to diplomacy – imperfect, unsatisfying diplomacy that nonetheless deescalates the conflict.”
Analysts believe that wealthy Saudi Arabia should swallow its pride and engage in serious dialogue with Ansarallah, whose power has grown despite years of hardship and conflict. Riyadh should have realized by now that security cannot be bought through alliances with Western powers or the purchase of billions of dollars’ worth of advanced Western weaponry, particularly from the United States.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: tehrantimes.com
