Mercedes has had a dominant start to the new regulations in 2026, but while its driver Kimi Antonelli could technically seal his Formula 1 championship win this coming Sunday at the United States Grand Prix, Mercedes as a team will have to wait a little longer to confirm its constructors’ championship.
The Mexican Grand Prix is the earliest the Brackley squad could confirm its constructors’ championship win if it further extends its lead in Austin. The team leads on 578 points, 134 points clear of Ferrari. And with still six races left, McLaren and Red Bull could – by the numbers – still win it, but it is highly unrealistic.
A team can score a maximum of 43 points per weekend going forward with the last sprint weekend taking place in Singapore. That leaves a total of 258 points available in the rest of the season. After Austin, 215 points will still be up for grabs, meaning that even if Mercedes finishes with a 1-2 and Ferrari fails to score, this would extend its lead to just 177. Therefore, the title cannot be won in Texas.
The month of November brings a race in Mexico, and this will be Mercedes’ earliest chance at winning its title. With just four races left after that, 172 points remain, so Mercedes needs a lead of at least 172 points by outscoring Ferrari by 38 points across both Austin and Mexico.
Even a tie would still point to Mercedes, with 11 grand prix wins to Ferrari’s two.
Two Mercedes one-twos while Ferrari collects no more than 48 points across both weekends would hand it the win. This does mean Sao Paulo is the more realistic option on 8 November. With 129 points up for grabs after Brazil, Mercedes would be champion if it was 129 points or more ahead.
To win in Las Vegas, the team would need a lead of 86 and to clinch it in Qatar, at the end of November, would require a lead of just 43.
Obviously, with both Qatar and Abu Dhabi still in question due to the situation in the Middle East, fewer points could be available depending on whether these races could be cancelled. Imola has also been discussed as a possible replacement.
A ninth constructors’ title would take Mercedes level with Williams on nine, behind Ferrari and McLaren. Its previous eight came in a row from 2014 to 2021.
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