Israel election live: exit polls project no clear winner, as anti-Netanyahu bloc leads but Likud remains biggest party

As we’ve been reporting all day, this election has seen historically high voter turnout.

As of 10pm local time, when the polls officially closed, turnout had reached 77.7%, per the Central Election Committee’s latest update.

Haaretz put this as the highest turnout since 2001.

So, Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition is indeed projected to lose its parliamentary majority.

If the exit polls are correct, his Likud party narrowly comes out as the largest party by a projected one or two seats, but this still represents a loss for the party of 25% of its seats compared to the last election in 2022. And what is more, Netanyahu’s coalition bloc is projected to win only 50 seats this time around, a loss of 14 since the 2022 election.

Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc, meanwhile, is projected to win 52 or 53 seats, and therefore also remains short of the 61 Knesset seats needed to make a majority. The former IDF chief would thus have to try to form a government with the support of the Israeli Arab parties, who are projected to win a staggering 17 or 18 seats, though it is unclear whether that would alienate some of his political allies. Eisenkot himself had ruled out such an arrangement before the election, but there is precedent for a deal still being made in what will no doubt be intense negotiations to come.

By contrast, analysts have argued that if the exit polls are correct, there is no clear pathway to power now for Netanyahu, unless he could somehow convince centrist parties to join his coalition. If not, he would also of course stay on in a “caretaker” capacity while opposition parties try to forge a governing coalition.

Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar has said that opposition celebrations were “premature” after initial exit polls in this historic election projected a slight edge over Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc but still short of a majority.

“The celebrations on the left are premature. The smugness of the biased commentators – ridiculous. One thing seems quite clear: [Netanyahu’s] Likud is the largest party in Israel,” he said on X, posting a video showing Likud’s first election win in 1977.

Israel’s election was too close to call on Tuesday night after a historic turnout by voters for an election described by some as the most consequential in the country’s history, and marked by a record participation by Israeli Arab voters.

Exit polls published on Tuesday evening suggested that the opposition bloc of parties led by the former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Gadi Eisenkot, would win most seats in the Knesset by a slight margin, edging out Benjamin Netanyahu’s right and far-right coalition despite the prime minister’s Likud emerging as the largest party.

The result is likely to set off weeks of jockeying over who can form a coalition government before a prime minister is declared or another round of elections is called.

After a day in which Israelis streamed to polling stations across the country, exit polls suggested Netanyahu’s ability to command the loyalty of a large core of Likud party voters remained undimmed despite his rejection by large numbers of his Israelis.

The predicted haul of up to 18 Knesset seats for Israeli Arab parties is likely to make them the kingmakers in what seem certain to be protracted talks to form a new government, with Netanyahu likely to fall short of the support required to form a new coalition.

The exit polls – if they prove accurate – suggest a struggle for either Likud or Eisenkot’s Yashar to find a road to a majority in the 120 seat Knesset. Likud’s projected showing, not for the first time, appears to have defied predictions in the run up to the vote.

What is clear, however, is that Netanayhu no longer has a claim to a mandate with his political fate in the balance.

Former Israeli prime minister and Beyachad (Together) party canddiate Yair Lapid has said that Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc has been told “to go home” in this election.

He wrote on X:

Don’t let anyone mislead you: the Netanyahu bloc suffered a crushing defeat. It is a total collapse, and the public has told them to go home.

in Tel Aviv

At the election night headquarters of the Yashar party, activists cheered the TV broadcast of exit polls showing parties making up the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc were ahead of Netanyahu’s coalition.

“There’s a lot of excitement and a lot of hope for Israel’s future now,” said Itay, a 28 year-old startup founder who had flown back from the US to campaign for Gadi Eisenkot, his first time getting involved in politics.

The excitement felt real, among activists and prospective Knesset members gathered at the National Sports Centre in Tel Aviv, even though Eisenkot’s own party was forecast to come in a couple of seats behind Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party.

“I’m really happy,” said Lia, 23, a medical student and activist, adding that she is still waiting for figures from the count, which might give Eisenkot a larger mandate. “I hope we can be even happier when the full results come in.”

The balance of seats in the Knesset are forecast to go to parties supported by Palestinian citizens of Israel in a historic high. Eisenkot has ruled out going into coalition with the Palestinian parties, but they have indicated they might support a minority opposition government.

Itay welcomed the strong Palestinian vote, which he said was a sign to the world that “this is a country where every citizen is equal”, and said he was hopeful deal could be reached to form a working government.

“I’m optimistic with the results everyone can have a shared vision, all the parties can come together. Everyone has to budge, because together we are stronger.”

The leader of the Democrats party, Yair Golan, has also given his reaction to the exit polls, declaring that Israeli voters have “dismissed” Netanyahu’s government.

He wrote on X:

The public has spoken; it has dismissed the Netanyahu government. We have been granted a historic opportunity to form a government of genuine change in Israel, and we have no intention of letting it slip away. We represent a vast public—people who have been fighting in the streets for four years, joining political parties, and going out into the field to persuade others. We will do everything in our power to ensure that such a government is established.

We are ready to work with all our partners, bridge the gaps, and take responsibility. The public has had its say. Now it is our turn to do the work.

Here are some reactions to the exit polls, which have projected that the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is set to win more total seats than Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition.

Here is Gadi Eisenkot’s reaction to the exit polls. He wrote on X:

Initial exit poll results indicate a complete lack of confidence in Netanyahu and the “October 7th government” among the Zionist majority and the majority of Israeli citizens.

If these are the final results, it constitutes a victory for the mainstream Zionist majority in Israel.

I will act immediately to carry out the will of the people, to replace the Netanyahu government, and to establish a Zionist government of national mobilisation as soon as possible.

Israel’s Channel 13’s exit poll also projects no clear winner, with the opposition bloc projected to win 53 seats, the Netanyahu bloc 50 seats and the parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel 17 seats.

Broadcaster Kan News projected the same numbers.

Exit polls from Israel’s major TV stations have projected that a majority of Israelis have voted against Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, but his Likud party has emerged as the largest party.

The Channel 12 exit poll shows that the bloc of Jewish-led parties opposing Netanyahu has the biggest bloc, and is projected to win a total of 52 seats, compared to 50 seats for the parties supporting Netanyahu.

It also projects that Netanyahu’s Likud party will win 24 seats in the Knesset, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is projected to win 22 seats.

Neither bloc is close to a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset without the support of the Palestinian-led parties, which also oppose Netanyahu and are projected in that poll to win a total of 18 seats, a record number for them.

It’s now past 10pm in Israel, which means polling stations across the country have closed after Israelis turned out in record numbers on a high-stakes election day that will determine the future of Benjamin Netanyahu.

A reminder that Israelis waiting in line at polling stations will still be allowed to cast their vote.

Israeli broadcasters are now set to air a set of exit polls, which will provide first estimates of the results. We’ll bring you all the latest on that as those come in.

Polling stations across Israel are set to close in less than 35 minutes, when news tv stations will release their first exit polls giving preliminary estimates of how many seats each party has won.

The first lot of official results then won’t be released until after around 1am local time on Wednesday. And while the exit polls usually provide a reliable indication of how people have voted, they can also vary.

The current coalition is expected to lose its majority, but we won’t expect clear results quickly as the coalition nature of Israeli government means that even small changes in vote share will change coalition calculations. We therefore may not get fuller results until the next day or the day after.

The final tally is expected by 30 October and official election results are formally published a week after the election, on 4 November.

After ​the final tally is ​in, Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, ⁠will consult party leaders on whom they want as prime minister and then tap the candidate he believes has the best chance ​of forming a government.

That nominee has up to 42 days to form ​a government.

No ⁠single party in Israel has ever won an outright majority, so governments are formed by a coalition of parties who can get to 61 seats – and negotiations on forming a government often take weeks. Every Knesset seat counts and ⁠small ​parties can have a big impact by becoming kingmakers.

If ​the nominee fails, others can get a chance to try. If no government emerges, another election is called, meaning ​Benjamin Netanyahu and his cabinet would remain in place as a “caretaker” government.

It’s now just gone 9pm in Israel, and nationwide voter turnout as of 8pm was 74.3%, per the Central Elections Committee.

That is not only up from 66.3% at the same time in the 2022 election; that figure surpasses the 70.6% total recorded turnout on election day in 2022.

The governor of New York, home to the world’s largest urban Jewish community outside of Israel, has said that her job would get “a lot easier” if Benjamin Netanyahu loses this election.

In an interview with Politico, Kathy Hochul said:

I represent the largest [urban] Jewish population in the world outside of Israel. And I know they’re suffering. A lot of people are anxious about antisemitism, which is sky-high right now …

I went to Israel right after October 7. I saw a lot of pain there. But I actually cautioned the government there, in private conversations, not to overreach.

The world is with you when it comes to the brutal assault by … Hamas on innocent Israeli people. An overreach could change that dynamic, and that’s what’s happened.

We have to have leadership there that understands the security of Israel is paramount – critically important to me, but also the world – but to have a safe Palestinian state as well, which has been talked about my entire life.

I still believe that this can happen. I believe we have to get people of goodwill who can make this happen, and as long as Netanyahu is sitting there, that is not in his interest to do that. It’s just not, and it won’t happen.

Voter turnout as of 6pm local time reached 66.7%, the highest ever by that hour since voting hours were first recorded, the Central Elections Committee said.

That is a 9% increase from the 2022 election at that time and Israel’s highest recorded turnout by 6pm.

The Central Elections Committee decided not to extend voting hours beyond 10pm, rejecting a request submitted by Netanyahu bloc parties, Haaretz is reporting.

In a statement, the committee said it met this evening and decided “the current circumstances do not justify an extension”.

It added that the high turnout “reflects strong public engagement in the democratic process” and “no need to extend voting hours was identified”.

A reminder that, under Israeli law, the current rules do allow for a voter to cast their vote past the polling time, just as long they arrive at a station by 10pm.

As we’ve been reporting, a record number of Israelis cast their ballots in the first half of polling day, voting at polling stations across the country and in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

By 2pm local time (it is now after 8pm), 44.9% of voters had cast their ballot – the highest turnout since record-keeping began in the 1970s.

My video colleagues have this report:

It’s been described as an existential moment; a battle for the soul of a nation. With voting under way in Israel today, public opinion is divided on what the future of the country looks like. To his supporters, Benjamin Netanyahu has protected the country in a way no other leader could, taking on Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis.

To his critics, Netanyahu is to blame for a catastrophic failure of security, leaving Israel more isolated, traumatised and no safer. Today, his most serious challenge comes from a candidate with little experience in office. Gadi Eisenkot is seen as humble, approachable … and honest. The former chief of staff for the Israeli military is promising a future without corruption. Thirteen months ago, his party didn’t even exist.

But after three years of war and upheaval, it’s clear that the consequences of today’s elections go way beyond Israel’s borders.

In the latest edition of our Today in Focus podcast, Emma Graham-Harrison tells Nosheen Iqbal about the stakes of the election and what it could all mean for the future of Israel – and for the Palestinians living under occupation.