A couple of years after the financial crisis, Kevin Warsh, Mark Carney, and Donald Kohn laced up their hiking boots and headed out of the Jackson Hole Symposium. In the wilds of Wyoming, they might have hoped—though couldn’t have known—that one among them would go on to lead the U.S. Federal Reserve and another would become the prime minister of his native Canada.
At the time, Kohn was the vice chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and, for his part, was unaware that his infamously rigorous expeditions had earned a nickname—”death march”—among his peers.
A little over a decade later, Kohn looked on as Warsh, his close former colleague, invoked the spirit of these hikes—walking hikes, not interest rate hikes—in his inaugural speech as central bank chairman at Jackson Hole in August.
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FUEL FOR THOUGHT
Southwest Airlines was the only winner in the Iran war jet fuel shock
After the Iran war started, the world did not run out of jet fuel, as some feared at the time, but airlines have had to navigate increased expenses—with mostly negative results for their bottom lines. Jet fuel “is often the largest or second-largest cost item for airlines. In 2025, it accounted for 27% of total operational costs on average. This share could move towards 35% in 2026,” according to ING’s Rico Luman.
Of the airlines he tracks, all suffered reduced operating profits this year due to shortages in supply from the Middle East. All, that is, except Southwest Airlines, which was the only one to see a gain in earnings before interest and taxes:
THE MARKETS
Tech stocks poised to move higher after chipmaker SK Hynix reports blowout Q3
Nasdaq futures were up this morning on upbeat news for the AI sector. Chipmaker SK Hynix beat expectations for its Q3 earnings. Its stock rose 11%, and South Korea’s KOSPI closed up 6.63%.
S&P 500 futures were flat after the index rose in the previous two sessions. It remains within touching distance of its all-time high. Traders appear to be in a holding pattern as they await a new interest rate decision from the Fed later today. The CME FedWatch index of Fed futures shows a 91% expectation that the central bank will hold rates at the 3.75% level.
- S&P 500 futures were up marginally by 0.08% this morning. The index rose 0.6% yesterday.
- In Europe, the Stoxx 600 fell 0.13% in early trading, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 fell 0.26% before lunch.
- Asia: South Korea’s KOSPI was up 6.63%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.08%. India’s Nifty 50 was down 0.15%. China’s CSI 300 was up 0.85%.
- Brent crude was at $115 per barrel.
- Bitcoin declined to $81,418.
The worst is behind us: Stocks poised to rise after the midterms
Stocks backed off their record high this month, but the angst should be over soon—once we have the results of the U.S. midterm elections. That’s because Oct. 27 is behind us. For some strange reason, Oct. 27 is usually the worst day of the fall period for U.S. stocks, which often take an inexplicable seasonal dive at this time of year, according to Deutsche Bank.
The fall dip effect is more pronounced in a year with midterms, DB’s Jim Reid says. But even so, once the elections are out of the way, it’s usually “one-way traffic” upward for stocks, he said in an email. The S&P 500 made gains over the next three months in 21 of the last 23 midterm years, according to the bank’s Binky Chadha and Parag Thatte.
Why do stocks rise after midterms? Because traders love it when political uncertainty is replaced by the guaranteed inaction of congressional gridlock, according to Pimco’s Libby Cantrill.
“The difference between a Democratic sweep—a Democratic House and Senate—and a split Congress—a Democratic House and a Republican Senate—are just not all that different. Under either, President Trump still has veto authority regardless,” Cantrill told Fortune via email. “Under either scenario, we expect to see more oversight, more obstruction, and incrementally higher spending.”
Perfect for equities, in other words!
CHART OF THE DAY
AI is discovering high-severity cybersecurity holes in record numbers
The PHP internet vulnerability discovered by two firms using AI models from OpenAI and Google last week is the tip of the iceberg, according to Karim Mattar at ARK Invest.
In June, about 1,500 high- and critical-severity vulnerabilities were disclosed by various organizations, three and a half times the record before Anthropic launched Claude Mythos Preview back in April.
“AI can surface vulnerabilities rapidly, [and] attackers are likely to exploit weaknesses more quickly, forcing organizations to patch their software systems more often,” he said in a note.
NUMBER OF THE DAY
180 million
The number of bags of coffee beans consumed by the world annually, according to Goldman Sachs intern Samuel Jönsson and his colleagues Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven. Each bag weighs 60 kilograms (132 pounds), for a total of 1.08 billion kilos (23.8 billion pounds) of coffee.
THE FRONT PAGES TODAY
Live: Israeli exit polls suggest no clear winner in pivotal general election – BBC
Polymarket’s top trader is sports gambler ‘Swiss Tony’ – FT
Trump says Iran war will end ‘when I want it to’ as costs reportedly balloon to $47 billion – CNBC
U.S. Warns Gulf of Possible Short, Intense Renewal of Iran War After Midterms – WSJ
U.S. granting visas to Flávio Bolsonaro and family – Axios
Mbappe Learns the Value of Silence on China – Bloomberg
Inside the Billionaires’ War Against California’s Proposed Wealth Tax – NYT
Crooks are ripping off huge shipments of pricey AI equipment – $100M in heists since June – NY Post
ONE MORE THING
Inside one family’s $1 billion inheritance drama, in which a father had to tell his kids they weren’t getting any money
When it comes to inheriting significant wealth, many rich families avoid the conversation about how the estate will be divided because they’re afraid of the emotional discomfort, writes Wingspan Legacy Partners founder Christina Wing. She told Fortune about her work with a high-net-worth couple, Jose and Natalia:
“Jose was educated as an accountant and worked for investment banks before founding a wildly successful private equity firm. The couple, who now live in San Francisco and are in their eighties, have built substantial wealth. Their assets total over $1 billion.”
“They have four children in their fifties, all well-educated and financially independent. Years ago, the parents gave each child a significant gift—about $25 million each [and] the children have always assumed they would inherit most of the estate when the parents die.”
“Here’s the secret: They won’t.”
Find out how the children reacted by reading the whole thing here. (Spoiler alert: It did not go well!)
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ONE MORE THING
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: fortune.com
