A Happy Halloween from the UFC.
For the first time in six years, the UFC returns on Halloween night with a decent card this weekend.
Twelve fights are on tap, headlined by Renato Moicano against Tom Nolan, a legitimately fun lightweight bout.
Nine of those fights are expected to end inside the distance, according to the oddsmakers. Let’s dive in to the best bets of UFC Vegas 123:
UFC Fight Night Vegas 123 predictions
Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan
Moicano has been a bit of a gatekeeper for this division, losing only to the best that 155 pounds has to offer. He even has some wins against elite talent. He defeated Benoit Saint Denis by knockout and also submitted plenty of other solid fighters, including Alexander Hernandez and Jai Herbert.
This fight is the biggest of Nolan’s career, by far. He headlines a UFC event for the first time and has never gone a full 25 minutes in his MMA career. Moicano represents a sizeable step up in competition for Nolan.
For that reason, I’m targeting Moicano to continue to turn away lesser competition as Nolan doesn’t defend takedowns too well and he’s been knocked down twice against far worse competition.
Can’t trust Nolan in this fight, and I’ll instead target Moicano to win inside the distance of this five-round fight.
Prediction: Moicano wins inside the distance (+200, FanDuel).
Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith
We’ll learn everything we need to know about Smith this week.
Smith, who is arguably the best athlete in the UFC, has been one of the most sought-after prospects in UFC history, coming in as a massive favorite in all of his fights as the biggest 170-pound fighter out there.
Saturday’s co-main event fight against Randy Brown is the lowest favorite he’s been in his six-fight UFC career.
Brown, nicknamed “Rudeboy,” is a grizzled vet, with 22 UFC fights to his record, but through all of those I can’t find an athlete as impressive as Smith.
Smith is taking this fight on short notice, but I still see Smith’s price as a bargain, all things considered.
Smith averages an obscene 7.92 takedowns per 15 minutes and a massive 6.91 significant strikes per minute, some of the biggest numbers we’ve ever seen.
This is a buy-low spot on Smith, who is still undefeated in his UFC career.
Prediction: Jacobe Smith wins by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+350, Hard Rock Bet); Live bet Brown live if he survives Round 1.
UFC Vegas 123 full card picks
Ode’ Osbourne vs. Cody Durden: Fight goes the distance (+150, FanDuel) | small bet Osbourne by submission (+650, Kalshi).
Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos: Yana Santos moneyline (+260, theScore Bet).
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov: Lebosnoyani by KO/TKO (+420, FanDuel).
Francis Marshall vs. Dakota Hope: Marshall by submission (+440, FanDuel).
Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Theodor Berggren: Sezinando by submission (+488, Kalshi).
Julian Erosa vs. JeongYeong Lee: Erosa by KO/TKO (+700, DraftKings).
Zach Reese vs. Mickey Gall: Gall by KO/TKO (+2000, DraftKings/BetRivers).
Nick Klein vs. Joe Kropschot: Pass.
Talita Alencar vs. Piera Rodriguez: Alencar moneyline (+240, BetMGM) | Alencar by decision (+460, FanDuel).
Lucia Szabová vs. Tainara Lisboa: Szabova by submission (+200, FanDuel).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: nypost.com
