‘I may politically die in this endeavour’: Canavan confirms battleground contest

Matt Canavan has confirmed his bid to switch from the Senate to the lower house, ending years of speculation the Nationals leader would take on a surging One Nation to contest his home electorate in Central Queensland.

The Rockhampton-based seat of Capricornia is poised as the battleground for conservative titans at the next federal poll – where Pauline Hanson’s populist party has committed significant resources to fuel an ongoing surge in support.

Canavan’s bid to seek party endorsement for the electorate comes after Michelle Landry revealed last month she would not recontest the next poll.

One Nation’s party director James Ashby, Hanson’s closest and most influential aide, is based within the electorate in the coastal town of Yeppoon.

Ashby, who unsuccessfully ran for the state seat of Keppel within the Capricornia boundary in 2024, has long teased of running for the federal seat. Regardless of his intention, Capricornia is expected to be hotly contested by One Nation.

Canavan acknowledged his position as party leader and prominent local politician would not guarantee electoral success in Capricornia, releasing a statement on Monday morning he was “putting it all on the line”.

“I am nominating to be a candidate in the House of Reps to help change this country, unleash our nation’s potential and bring down the cost of living for all Australian families,” he said.

“As leader of The Nationals, I have a duty to be on the frontline with my team, to get rid of this terrible government. I realise there is no such thing as a safe seat any more.

“I may politically die in this endeavour, but I am not going to die wondering.”

Traditionally a seat that leaned towards Labor, Capricornia was won by Landry for the Liberal National Party of Queensland at the last five elections.

At the last poll in 2025, she recorded a primary vote of 36.56 per cent while her Labor opponent Emily Mawson recorded 31.9 per cent and One Nation candidate Cheryl Kempton scored 15.5 per cent.

While that is a solid result for One Nation, the party’s standing in the polls has since surged, and it would expect to secure a higher primary vote. Landry’s two-party preferred vote was 55.8 per cent to Labor’s 43.41 per cent.

LNP strategists, speaking to this masthead anonymously to speak freely on party matters, were long concerned about a dip in support in the key electorate without Landry’s personal popularity.

Canavan was viewed as the best option to stave off a rising One Nation.

In the statement announcing his tilt for Capricornia, Canavan said Australia’s target for net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 was the “biggest handbrake” on industry in Central Queensland and the nation more broadly, and the next election would be a referendum on the policy.

“Net zero is pushing up the price of energy, net zero is shipping our jobs overseas and net zero is destroying the natural environment it is meant to protect, through the rollout of industrial-sized wind and solar projects,” he said.

“To get rid of net zero, we need to change the government. I want to make sure the next election is a true referendum on net zero and to do that we must win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives.”

Mawson, who increased Labor’s primary by nearly 4 per cent at the 2025 poll, is highly rated by the party internally.

A source with knowledge of internal decisions told this masthead Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is eager for Mawson to run once again, but she is yet to reveal her intention for the next election.

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