Here’s what’s happened so far today
Americans are heading to the polls in elections that could have major ramifications for the second half of Donald Trump’s presidency.
Polls began opening at 7am on the US East Coast (11pm today AEDT). They will start to close at 6pm Eastern time (10am tomorrow AEDT), with Texas and most Midwest states closing at 9pm Eastern (1pm tomorrow AEDT) and Alaska closing at midnight Eastern (4pm tomorrow AEDT).
All seats in the US House of Representatives and a third of Senate seats are up for grabs. The results will determine whether the Democrats can neuter Trump’s agenda or if he will maintain his grip on America until the next presidential election in November 2028.
Here’s what happened this morning:
- Trump wrapped up the Republicans’ election campaign with a speech from the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington.
- The speech focused heavily on his remaking of the capital and, in particular, the pool – the site of the botched renovation. He did not mention the election for the first 20 minutes.
- The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll overnight showed Trump’s approval rating near a record low, but signs that the battle for Congress between Democrats and Republicans could be tightening.
- Other polling suggested a blue wave for Democrats in both houses of Congress.
- In his speech, Trump noted the latest fall in the price of oil and pledged energy costs would come down “a lot further” once the war against Iran ended.
- Hours later, US officials confirmed to the Wall Street Journal that the military had carried out limited strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran’s state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reporting five blasts on Qeshm Island
- The Supreme Court rejected a push for California to set aside thousands of mail-in ballots from people that the Trump administration claims are non-citizens.
- Attorney-General Todd Blanche encouraged people to report any potential non-citizens voting, sparking fears of unrest or even vigilantism at the polls.
How likely is a ‘mirage’?
“Red mirage” is the term credited to data scientist Josh Mendelsohn in 2020 to describe the phenomenon of results appearing to favour Republicans at the start before shifting in the other direction.
Today, observers refer to both blue and red mirages.
Here’s why a mirage can happen: Election officials in the US report cumulative vote totals in real time as they count ballots, and the leading candidate can change throughout the night. Those lead changes produce “mirages” – the illusion that a candidate is winning based on an unrepresentative sample of votes.
While sudden changes in reported vote totals have often fuelled conspiracy theories in recent years, they’re not new and are not evidence of vote tampering.
US confirms fresh Iran strikes
The US has conducted defensive strikes on some Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz, an American official has said following earlier Iranian state television reports of explosions on Qeshm Island.
The official, who wasn’t authorised to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, said that “Iranians using surface-to-air missiles against US assets” had been targeted.
The strikes, which appeared limited rather than a full return to hostilities, came on the eve of the midterm elections. President Donald Trump had previously said the US wouldn’t launch strikes on Iran before the elections.
The unpopular Iran war and the resulting impact on US petrol prices and other parts of the economy have been a vulnerability for Republicans as they try to keep control of Congress.
Earlier, Vice President JD Vance told reporters he had spoken with Trump about talks with Iran and said that “the president and I both feel pretty good about the prospects for potentially coming to a negotiated settlement”.
AP
Opinion: Trump has risen to the top on a wave of cynicism. It’s starting to crash
Since the beginning of the US midterm campaigns, which reach their climax today, Donald Trump has held three rallies in my home state of South Carolina.
Republicans haven’t had to worry about South Carolina elections for a long time. We last elected a Democrat to statewide office in 2006. We most recently sent a Democrat to the Senate in 1998.
But 2026 is redrawing the political map and the US president’s rally schedule makes it clear how far it has shifted.
Republicans may well still hold some ground in today’s midterms. But they are playing defence all the way to the horn.
Read former Biden-Harris White House staffer Cory Alpert’s column here.
Some key midterms numbers to watch
As with any election, the midterms are a numbers game. Here are some of the fundamentals.
- 218 seats are needed for a party to control the lower house, the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats go up for grabs every two years; and 218 happens to be the number of seats currently held by Republicans – so, a wafer-thin majority.
- 214 seats are held by the Democrats. Two are vacant after a couple of earlier resignations. The one independent is Californian Kevin Kiley, who was elected as a Republican but changed in March. So, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to gain control of the House.
- Meanwhile, 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election. That includes special elections for the two places vacated by J.D. Vance in Ohio and Marco Rubio in Florida when they resigned as senators to become vice president and secretary of state, respectively, and which have since been filled by temporary appointments.
- 53 Senate seats are held by Republicans.
- 45 Senate seats are held by Democrats with whom two independents caucus: Bernie Sanders from Vermont and Angus King from Maine.
- 51 seats is what the Democrats would need to control the Senate, also known as a 51-Democrat, or 51D, result.
- Contrast this with a 50-Republican result: in a 50-50 tie, the vice president casts the deciding vote; in this case, that would be Vance, which means the Republicans would remain in control.
One pressing question: How will Trump respond to the results?
How Trump responds to the results – especially if Republicans lose control of Congress– could become one of the election’s biggest stories.
In the early hours of November 4, 2020, before vote counting had finished in several states, Trump declared victory and called for counting to stop.
He ultimately lost to Democrat Joe Biden, but continued to falsely claim the election had been stolen, helping fuel the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol by a mob of his supporters who were seeking to stop certification of Biden’s win by Congress.
Trump still falsely claims he won the 2020 election and has cast doubt on the integrity of these midterms, raising the prospect of Republican challenges if the party loses one or both chambers.
This year, the Trump administration has pressed states for voter data and launched investigations into non-citizen voting, which election experts and studies have found little evidence to support.
Reuters
Reports of explosions on Iran’s Qeshm Island
There are reports of explosions in Iran.
The country’s state run Islamic Republic News Agency reported five blasts on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz.
A correspondent for the agency heard the explosions in quick succession, the agency reported, while residents spotted planes in the skies above the island.
Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the US was responsible for the strikes, citing US officials.
US midterms will have ‘big economic consequences’ for Australia: Chalmers
The outcome of the US midterm elections will have significant consequences for Australia’s economy, the treasurer has warned.
As Americans head to the polls, Jim Chalmers said the implications of the result would flow on to countries around the world, including Australia.
“There are potentially big economic consequences of these midterms, particularly when it comes to any implications for the war in the Middle East,” he told ABC Radio today.
“Americans are dealing with a lot of the same issues that we are, whether it be inflation or these other pressures on people. The difference between us and the Americans is that they have a say when in when the war ends, and we don’t.
‘Deeply troubled’: Judge dismisses case linked to Hunter Biden laptop, suggests charges rushed for midterms
Washington: A US federal judge has dismissed a criminal complaint against two former FBI officials accused of lying to Congress about Hunter Biden, citing what he said was the “weaponisation” of President Donald Trump’s Justice Department just before the midterm elections.
In a scathing ruling read from the bench, US Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui said the investigation that produced the charges against Nikki Floris and Bradley Benavides was rushed, conducted at the behest of Trump and FBI Director Kash Patel and dogged by “critical mistakes” that require the dismissal of the case.
“I am deeply troubled by what has happened here,” Faruqui said. “What has transpired here cannot be described as anything other than weaponisation.”
The ruling may not bring a permanent end to the matter because the Justice Department still has the option of pursuing an indictment, even though it has struggled during the Trump administration to persuade grand juries in the nation’s capital to deliver criminal charges in politically sensitive prosecutions like this one.
Trump first won power 10 years ago. His speeches are getting wilder and wilder
As he opened his speech at a recent campaign rally in Greenville, North Carolina, US President Donald Trump told the story of the Willie Horton crime case that helped sink the presidential campaign of Democrat Michael Dukakis in 1988.
And then, 30 minutes later, still speaking at the same rally to the same audience from the same lectern, Trump told the same Willie Horton story all over again, using some of the same language (and getting the facts wrong both times).
Trump, who last year became the oldest person ever inaugurated as president and turned 80 in June, has demonstrated physical stamina as he barnstorms the country in advance of midterm elections.
But his performances on the road and at the White House of late have produced many head-scratching moments that have revived questions about his age and stability.
How long will it take to determine who’s won?
If the last midterm election in 2022 is any indication, it could take days. That year, the Associated Press didn’t call control of the House until November 16 – eight days after the election.
If it’s a close election this year, it will likely come down to California again. Its mail-in voting system allows ballots postmarked by election day to be counted even if they’re not delivered until seven days later.
If Democrats win key early House races, the writing could be on the wall earlier. One such race is in Kentucky’s 6th District, a district Trump won by 15 points but where Democrat Zach Dembo is challenging Republican Ralph Alvarado in a surprisingly close race that the election analysis service Cook Political Report rates as a toss-up.
Control of the Senate could be uncertain for even longer. One potential hold-up is Alaska, which uses ranked-choice voting to determine the winner.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: www.smh.com.au
