Securing genuine depth at running back becomes the ultimate separator between fantasy football contenders and pretenders. With more than half the schedule behind us, injuries mounting and bye weeks hitting hard, second-half touches at the position carry an extremely premium-value.
But as managers flock to the waiver wire, making smart additions requires critical context. You cannot afford to just go boxscore surfing and grab every player who popped off for a big stat line. You must ensure the player you acquire projects to hold a genuine, sustainable role moving forward.
Take Emmett Johnson as the prime example. Johnson is slated to be one of the most popular fantasy waiver additions this week. That’s largely because his 73-yard catch-and-run touchdown exploded onto screens during the late window when just three games were on, putting him directly under the spotlight of casual managers everywhere.
Though Andy Reid might continue to work the rookie into the Chiefs’ passing attack, the underlying usage paints a vastly different picture. Johnson still plays no more than 25 percent of offensive snaps, and this offense unambiguously belongs to Kenneth Walker III as both a runner and a receiver.
That minimal workload makes predicting when Johnson will actually produce almost impossible. His true fantasy value remains what it was before the big play: a top-tier handcuff to Walker rather than an immediate starter.
If you are looking for a pickup with a real path to a starting workload, Seth McGowan is the far more sensible target. The Jonathan Taylor trade rumors have turned from faint whispers into loud declarations as the deadline approaches. Once Taylor is moved, McGowan, who has already established himself as the primary backup, is slated to step right into the lead running back duties for the Colts.
Indianapolis did suffer a blow along the offensive line with the trade of star guard Quenton Nelson, but fantasy managers know that raw volume can frequently trump suspect line play. Better yet, McGowan’s audition as a starter could begin in Week 9 against a struggling Cowboys defense. Dallas is giving up a league-high 152.8 rushing yards per game and a porous 5.0 yards per carry average, while already allowing 10 rushing touchdowns on the ground.
At this juncture in the fantasy calendar, pure volume is the single most important metric to chase at running back. When evaluating potential pickups, look beyond single-game highlights and target players who project to earn heavy snap counts and an even stronger carry share. And don’t hesitate to pull the trigger even if you feel comfortable with your current starters. Given the relentless wave of injuries and backfield shifts defining the season, you can never have too much depth at the running back position.
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Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy, catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Ch. 87) weekdays from 6-8 p.m. and dominate your leagues with the latest football news and advice from Fantasy Alarm.
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