There’s baptism by fire, and then there is Joe Fagnano’s last four days.
Plunged into action after both Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley exited with injuries in Sunday’s 36-10 loss to Josh Allen and the vaunted Bills, the undrafted rookie now must make his first NFL start against an elite Jacksonville defense on short rest.
Oh, and he is nursing an ankle injury of his own.
Baltimore’s quarterback catastrophe and three-game skid have fueled a 14.5-point swing, turning the Ravens from 4.5-point favorites when the early line was released into 10-point home underdogs.
The Jaguars, 5-2, are beginning to run away with the AFC South while the Ravens, 4-4, sit last in the AFC North.
Jaguars vs. Ravens prediction, best bet
Fagnano struggled mightily in his debut, completing only 47.6 percent of his passes for 91 yards while throwing an interception, fumbling, and eating three sacks.
The Jaguars, meanwhile, are rolling off a 42-7 demolition of the Colts. Not that Indianapolis has been any standard of excellence, but the Jaguars led 28-0 at halftime, forced three turnovers, and capped it at 4.0 yards per play.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, which isolates true, deep dropbacks in its pressure-rate calculations, Jacksonville enters M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday ranked sixth in pressure rate (39.2 percent), while Baltimore’s offensive line ranks 26th in pressure rate allowed (40.9 percent).
Without Jackson on the field, the Ravens have averaged 4.6 yards per play, a mark that would rank 30th in the NFL.
Derrick Henry figures to shoulder the offensive burden, but he’ll need to puncture a run defense that isn’t so forgiving: the Jaguars have yielded the fewest yards to running backs, giving them 57.7 per game and 3.3 yards per carry.
The other problem for Henry is the game script. He’s managed 60 or fewer scrimmage yards in three straight games and has been largely eliminated from Baltimore’s offense in the second halves of recent losses. If the Ravens fall behind, Jacksonville can sell out against the run and dare an undrafted rookie to beat them through the air.
Either way, points haven’t come easily against Jacksonville under any circumstance. The Jaguars have held six of seven opponents to 20 points or fewer, allowing just 11.4 points per game across its five victories.
Good news for Trevor Lawrence: the Ravens defense has surrendered six passing touchdowns to Joe Burrow and Josh Allen over the past two weeks. Lawrence has thrown seven touchdowns and 516 yards in his last two games, leading the NFL in touchdown rate (8.6 percent) and passing points per dropback (0.57).
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There’s also Bhayshul Tuten, who just posted 159 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns against Indianapolis, powering the Jaguars to a season-high 183 rush yards. Since Liam Coen took over the headset, Jacksonville is 10-1 when rushing for at least 110 yards.
Trends say laying the points is the safe bet. Baltimore is 2-6 against the spread and an NFL-worst 0-3 ATS at home. Jacksonville is 10-4 ATS as a favorite since 2025, the best mark in the league, including 3-1 as a road favorite.
The Ravens have enough on their hands completing a pass, much less keeping pace with a Jaguars offense that has scored 73 points over its last two games.
THE PLAY: Jaguars -10 (-108, BetMGM)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: nypost.com
