Conservative bloc takes slim lead in NZ election that’s still too close to call

New Zealanders are unlikely to have much clarity for weeks over who will govern the country for the next three years, after overnight results showed the ruling centre-right National Party and main opposition Labour Party were nearly deadlocked in the popular vote.

Electoral Commission preliminary results showed that both parties were polling at just under 30 per cent of the popular vote, with only a few hundred votes separating them.

An Electoral Commission projection showed the current three-party ruling coalition, led by National, would secure a two-seat majority after an election dominated by a struggling economy and voter disillusionment with the two largest parties.

The final vote count, however, which will include special votes that have historically favoured left-leaning parties, will not be released until November 27.

Until then the incumbent coalition, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, will continue to operate as a caretaker government.

If the National-led coalition loses its majority at the official count, either it or a left-leaning coalition would require the support of the centrist Opportunity Party, which looks likely to enter parliament for the first time.

Luxon has repeatedly ruled out working with Opportunity, but Mona Krewel, a senior political science lecturer at Victoria University of Wellington, said it was possible the two parties could still work together.

“I actually would take them for very centrist, very pragmatic, and so I do think they could make it work with National,” she said.

The country switched to a mixed member proportional system in 1996, meaning people vote for both a party and a local constituency candidate. There are 71 constituency, or “electorate”, seats and at least 49 party list seats.

However, National and a minor party, Te Pati Maori, each won a disproportionately high share of constituency seats relative to their popular-vote support due to tactical voting, reshaping the balance of seats in parliament and sparking debate about the electoral system.

“It certainly looks as if we’re on track for the least proportional parliament that we’ve had, as a result of the vagaries of the rules around how electorate seats interact with the parliament as a whole,” political commentator Ben Thomas said.

A newcomer to politics is poised to enter parliament

Voters instead bolstered power for minor parties on the ideological flanks, and propelled to office a centrist political newcomer, Qiulae Wong of the Opportunity Party, who has pledged a non-partisan and pragmatic agenda that draws from socially liberal, technocratic and pro-environment ideals.

It was too soon to know whether the support of 38-year-old Wong, whose party appeared set to enter parliament for the first time, would be required for any leader seeking to form a government.

New Zealanders don’t elect prime ministers. Instead, they cast two votes, one for their preferred party and one to select a local representative.

Parties must either win a constituency seat, or win 5 per cent of the preferred party vote, to enter parliament. New-entrant parties are rare and Opportunity, on current results, would be the first in more than a decade.

The magnitude of Wong’s success was still undecided, with the count Saturday showing Opportunity had just crossed the 5 per cent threshold, giving the party seven seats.

Wong has said that if she held the tiebreaker power, she was open to negotiating with either a conservative or a left-wing government and would deal first with whichever major party won the most votes.

The right-wing bloc might not need her, and Luxon has ruled out governing with Opportunity. Analysts say, however, that both major party leaders would likely answer the phone if Wong held the only path to power on election night.

Reuters, AAP