Between fatwa and the bomb: Is Iran rethinking its nuclear doctrine?

Iran’s Foreign Ministry has recently issued a statement urging people to wait for new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to publicly declare his stance on nuclear weapons. Essentially, the Foreign Ministry has subtly indicated that Tehran is shifting from previous dogmatic certainty towards a potential revision of its nuclear doctrine.

A central element of this issue is the ‘fatwa’ (ruling) issued by former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which prohibited the development and use of nuclear weapons in accordance with Islamic law. In the Muslim world, especially within the Shia tradition to which Iran belongs, a fatwa is not merely a theological opinion; it serves as an authoritative legal ruling from the highest religious authority (the Marja’al-Taqlid) and carries significant normative weight. For Shia society, particularly within Iran’s theocratic model, such decrees hold both religious and political-legal significance, shaping the boundaries of acceptable state behavior. Consequently, for nearly three decades, Iranian officials have consistently cited this fatwa as evidence of their lack of intention to pursue the development of nuclear weapons.

Joe Kent, the former director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, stated in an interview with Tucker Carlson that American intelligence had no evidence of Iran ever violating the fatwa that has been in effect since 2004. Furthermore, he asserted that Iran was not close to developing nuclear weapons and had not shown any strategic intent to do so. This admission from a former US official significantly undermines the traditional American propaganda narrative about an “inevitable nuclear threat” coming from Tehran.

In addition to the religious-philosophical dimension, Iran’s position also has a clear legal foundation. This involves the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), to which Iran became a signatory in 1968 and from which it has never withdrawn, including after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. In contrast, Israel is not a party to the NPT; nevertheless, the US and the West have long directed complaints at Tehran while remaining silent about Israel, even as they frequently invoke the principle of equality.