Nepal’s polity remains in flux even after a month of the Gen-Z agitation. “The old is dying and the new cannot be born. Now is the time for monsters,” Italian political philosopher Antonio Gramsci wrote in Prison Notebooks. This is an apt description of Nepal today.
Even as Nepal’s old and corrupt political order is collapsing, no new stable order is in sight. The old political parties have lost their dominance and reactionary forces are eagerly competing to fill the vacuum.
The interim government of Sushila Karki, a former chief justice of Nepal’s Supreme Court, which was installed on September 12, 2025, is still unable to form a full Cabinet. The non-partisan mandate of her government means that she has to avoid appointments from the traditional parties, narrowing the pool of acceptable candidates. Any nomination is subject to intense public and media scrutiny, especially in getting the green signal from the self-styled leaders of Gen-Z regarding corruption or political affiliations.
Ms Karki’s job is further complicated by having to ensure caste, regional and gender diversity in her Cabinet selection. Wary of the fragility of the interim setup, many potential candidates have refused to commit themselves to an uncertain tenure.
There are expectations that a second mass agitation may surface after Diwali and Chhat Puja. Political and military sources in Nepal believe that the monarchist forces will lead this agitation. The Gen-Z protesters have not recovered their steam, shell-shocked after the unexpected scale of arson and looting during their protest.
Although monarchist sentiment is in a minority, monarchists believe that the students’ agitation has given them momentum to rebrand the monarchy as a stabilising alternative to chaotic republican politics. They hope they will be able to channel the disillusionment of the youth towards monarchist nostalgia.
However, any agitation led by monarchists will definitely lead to reaction from the federalists and ethnic groups. In the event, the Sushila Karki government’s position could become precarious. Everything will depend on the scale and violence of the agitations and Ms Karki’s ability to get the institutional support she needs from the Army, judiciary and civil society.
Should the interim government collapse, there may be a push for the restoration of Parliament. There is already a clutch of petitions before the Supreme Court of Nepal against the unconstitutional dissolution of Parliament. If the court orders restoration, the political parties will have to ensure that partisan politics does not resurface. This will require major changes within the parties.
The most powerful signal of change would be getting rid of the old leadership. Public support for a government led by a restored Parliament will only happen once the three leaders – K.P. Sharma Oli, Sher Bahadur Deuba and Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda — are removed.
Mr Deuba has already relinquished his position as president of the Nepali Congress. A new leader will be chosen at the national convention of the party in December. The main contenders for the top job are Gagan Thapa, Shekhar Koirala and Purna Bahadur Khadka, the acting president and possibly Mr Deuba’s favourite for the job.
Mr Oli is hanging on to his position as chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Leninist). Arguing that party decisions cannot be taken by “what is said on Facebook”, he declared: “I have a huge responsibility. I am not going to step down without accomplishing it.” Nevertheless, there is speculation that he will be replaced by Bidya Devi Bhandari, once his protégé and former President of Nepal.
Mr Prachanda is also facing a backlash in the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre). His main challenger, Janardan Sharma Prabhakar, has demanded that he resign along with all the office bearers and face a national convention. Mr Prachanda has not resigned but has agreed to a national convention in December.
While the political parties are trying to reinvent themselves, monarchist forces are trying to inveigle their way into the polity once again. Whether either of these two forces will succeed in gaining public legitimacy remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, the protesting youth have not been able to provide any alternative — they have no political party. It is unclear whether they have the ability to form one before the scheduled general election on March 5.
As of now, elections in March seem unlikely. Without peace and security on the ground, normal political activity cannot begin, especially when security personnel are themselves living in fear. The morale of the police is severely eroded. About 5,000 criminals of the 15,000 who escaped from jails across the country during the September agitation are roaming free and the security forces have not been able to recover 800 guns and small arms looted on September 8 and 9. The political parties have complained to the Election Commission that Ms Karki, instead of ensuring an impartial environment for the elections, is acting in a vengeful manner against them.
If Parliament is revived, then there is no question of a mid-term election. However, Nepali society will have to decide on some difficult questions: What kind of Parliament will it be, what will be its relationship with a new government, how will Gen-Z’s voice be represented, will there be constitutional changes and of what kind?
While India and China were apparently blindsided in the September agitation, this time they should be able to anticipate how various political scenarios could unfold. They, along with the monarchists, were not enthused by carving federal provinces out of a small country like Nepal. The monarchists also do not want proportional representation, preferring only the first-past-the-post system. It is these elements of the Nepali constitution that have ensured representation for women, religious minorities and the janjatis.
The position of Gen-Z leaders is unclear on these issues. They are neither in a position to force their will on the polity, lacking the instruments for doing so, nor do they have a roadmap for the future. Unable to produce an alternative governance framework, the youth movement seems to have become a force of instability and open to manipulation by forces within and outside Nepal.
The uncertainty of the Nepalese polity has created a breeding ground for Gramsci’s “monsters”: extremism, authoritarianism and figures and movements that thrive on disorder.
The writer, a senior journalist based in New Delhi, was recently in Nepal
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: deccanchronicle.com
