The 2026 Big East Tournament is projected to be a straightforward affair.
This is a two-horse race between UConn and St. John’s, and anything other than a trilogy between the two rivals on Sunday would be a surprise.
That presents a couple of different perspectives on betting futures for this tournament.
You could look at it as an uninteresting endeavor where you pick one of the two heavyweights and hope you’re either on the right side of the coin flip if they meet on Sunday or that the other one gets upset along the way.
The other strategy is to bypass the top of the board completely. UConn and St. John’s will be sucking up so much of the value that you’re going to get some big numbers on teams that have the upside to make some noise, especially if one (or both) of the favorites stumble.
We’ll explore both approaches in our betting primer for the Big East Tournament.
The chalk
St. John’s may have won the regular season crown, but the bookmakers and experts have made their stance clear: UConn is the team to beat in the Big East Tournament. Dan Hurley’s side is a -130 favorite to cut down the nets at bet365 Sportsbook, putting it just ahead of the Red Storm (+200) and Villanova (+650).
The Huskies grade out as the 11th-best team in the country, per KenPom, and they are No. 7 in Bart Torvik’s model. UConn has just four losses all season, and only two of them (Creighton at home, Marquette on the road) qualify as head-scratchers. Their two other defeats came against Arizona, the third-best team in KenPom’s rankings, and St. John’s on the road. Both of those are more than forgivable.
The Huskies don’t just look good on the surface; they tick plenty of boxes under the hood, too.
UConn’s defensive numbers are among the best in the country. The Huskies are 11th in both KenPom and Bart Torvik’s models, and Evan Miya’s power rankings have them a touch higher at No. 7.
The Huskies are a little less inspiring on offense, but they still grade out as a terrific scoring side, ranking inside the top 30 across the most respected projection systems in the industry.
But just because you are the best team in a conference doesn’t mean you’re a good bet to win it. The price on UConn seems a bit steep, especially since they’ll likely have to navigate a tricky two-step at the business end with Villanova and then St. John’s.
On the other hand, the price on St. John’s is not terrible.
You’re getting a better number on a team whose statistical profile isn’t that far behind UConn’s. The Huskies are a touch better on both sides of the ball, per KenPom, but the difference isn’t enough to warrant the gap in price in the futures market.
Like UConn, St. John’s has built its foundation on a reliable, rock-solid defense.
The Red Storm play a rugged style of basketball that often translates well to these single-elimination tournaments, because it can suck in an opponent and get them out of their comfort zone.
They want to make things physical when you have the ball, but then push the pace when they have it. That can throw any team off its game, especially when a raucous home crowd at Madison Square Garden aids the Johnnies.
It’s not the most exciting price in the world, betting a +200 second-favorite to win a conference tournament, but there are a lot worse wagers you can make than backing a Red Storm repeat.
That said, there is another team in the field that provides more value
The sleeper
The one sleeper that could be worth a shot in this field is Seton Hall at 16/1.
The Pirates really struggle to put the ball in the basket, which is the point of this whole thing, but they do a terrific job of preventing their opponents from doing the same. Seton Hall finished the season as the 13th-best defensive team in the country, per KenPom. That is right up there with UConn and St. John’s.
The issue is that UConn also boasts a top-30 offense, while the Red Storm wrapped up the regular season at No. 51. That’s a long way ahead of Seton Hall, which scored just 69.2 points per game (last in the Big East) and finished the campaign as the 153rd-best offense in KenPom’s rankings.
The scoring numbers are scary, but the Pirates still check enough boxes to fit the sleeper profile. Not only is their defense lights out, but Seton Hall also plays at such a slow tempo that it can trap faster teams and throw them off their rhythm.
The likely path (Creighton, St. John’s, and then UConn) is daunting, but Seton Hall can absolutely cause a ruckus in this tournament if it can just improve its offense by a notch or two.
The long shot
I also want to park some space to talk about last-place Georgetown.
It’s been a disappointing season for the Hoyas, but there is a lot more to this team than meets the eye. They are not your typical doormat.
Just ask UConn and St. John’s.
Although Georgetown went 0-4 against two of the best teams in the country, three of those defeats came by four points or fewer. That was a theme for the Hoyas, as eight of their 14 losses in the Big East were within six points.
Part of that is down to talent and poor execution, but Lady Luck certainly hasn’t smiled on Georgetown this season. KenPom’s luck ratings have the Hoyas all the way down at 329. That’s a lot of bad bounces. Perhaps regression is coming.
None of this can excuse a 6-14 record in conference play, but it does explain why a lot of modelers and power rankings have the Hoyas on the same footing as the likes of Creighton, Providence, Xavier, Butler, and DePaul.
It’s probably unwise to chuck a bet on Georgetown to win the tournament at 100/1, but backing the Hoyas on the moneyline against DePaul and then a gettable Villanova side in the quarterfinals could be a fun, yet viable way to find some upside at MSG this week.
The Plays: St. John’s to win the Big East +200 | Seton Hall to win the Big East 16/1 | Georgetown moneyline over DePaul and Villanova
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: nypost.com
