Patna: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will kick off the high-stakes Bihar election campaign for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on October 24. His first stops (Samastipur and Begusarai) are more than just political waypoints. They are symbolic battlegrounds where the NDA hopes to reclaim lost ground and test if PM Modi’s magic still works in Bihar’s political landscape.
For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), one of the NDA’s principal pillars, the strategy remains familiar: when PM Modi campaigns, crowds swell and numbers move. In 2020, he addressed 12 rallies across Bihar. Five years earlier, it was 26. This year, party insiders hint that he may reprise the 10-to-12 rally plan, which is carefully chosen and strategically timed.
But what has Modi’s campaign really delivered for the NDA in Bihar? The data, stripped of rhetoric, tells a revealing story.
In the 2020 Assembly elections, the prime minister’s campaign helped the NDA storm back to power with a 61 percent strike rate. That year, the alliance brought together four partners (the BJP, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) or JD(U), Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM). The BJP contested 110 seats, the JD(U) 115, the VIP 11 and the HAM 7.
Once the Election Commission (EC) announced the polls on September 25, 2020, Modi plunged into the campaign, addressing 12 rallies that collectively covered 110 constituencies. Out of these, the NDA won 67 (a strike rate of 61 percent).
But Bihar’s political landscape never responds uniformly. In Sasaram, where Modi launched his first rally on October 23, the NDA lost all seven seats to the Mahagathbandhan (the alliance of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress and the Left parties). In Patna, where Modi addressed voters on the day of the first phase of polling, he covered 14 seats. The Opposition won nine and the NDA just five.
In Chhapra, where he campaigned on November 1, the BJP managed to win only three of 10 seats, while the RJD took six and one went to the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) or CPI(ML). Samastipur split evenly, with each alliance bagging five seats. In Gaya, the NDA claimed half of the 10 seats, with the BJP taking two and the HAM three. The remaining five went to the RJD.
But Modi’s rallies turned into clear wins in Bhagalpur, Muzaffarpur, West Champaran and East Champaran. Across these four districts, he covered 39 seats and won 28 (a 72 percent strike rate). Bhagalpur gave the NDA five of seven seats, Muzaffarpur six of 11, West Champaran eight of nine and East Champaran nine of 12.
The winning streak continued in Darbhanga, Araria and Saharsa, where PM Modi’s presence visibly lifted NDA fortunes. He covered 20 seats across these three districts and won 17 (an 85 percent strike rate). Darbhanga was the highlight: nine of ten seats went to the NDA. In Araria, the alliance took four of six, and in Saharsa, three of four.
But Bihar’s memory is long. The state also remembers 2015, when Modi’s rallies, however packed, failed to translate into votes. That year, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar was not by his side. The JD(U) leader had crossed over to join the Opposition, forming the Mahagathbandhan with the RJD, the Congress and the Left.
The NDA camp then included the BJP, Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) and Manjhi’s HAM. The BJP contested 157 seats, the LJP 42, the RLSP 23 and the HAM 21. The EC announced the polls on September 9, 2015. PM Modi addressed 26 rallies covering 191 constituencies, but the NDA won only 52 (a strike rate of 27 percent).
Entire districts slipped away. Munger, Begusarai, Samastipur, Jehanabad, Buxar and Madhepura, all blank for the NDA. In Banka, Aurangabad, Nalanda and Siwan, the alliance managed just one seat each. Patna gave the BJP seven of 14 seats, Kaimur all four and Chhapra two of ten. In West Champaran, the BJP took five of nine; and in East Champaran, eight of twelve. Muzaffarpur delivered only three of eleven seats.
Nine more districts, including Nawada, Gopalganj, Madhubani, Sitamarhi, Vaishali, Katihar, Darbhanga, Araria and Purnia, gave the NDA only two seats apiece. In six others (Munger, Begusarai, Samastipur, Jehanabad, Buxar and Madhepura), the alliance drew a blank.
Now, as Bihar prepares once again, all eyes are back on the Modi–Nitish equation. Bihar BJP chief Dilip Jaiswal confirmed that the prime minister will spend six days campaigning across the state. The first rallies are slated for Samastipur and Begusarai on October 24, followed by Muzaffarpur and Chhapra on October 30. More are expected on November 2, 3, 6 and 7.
Political observers say that Modi’s record in Bihar shines brightest when Nitish stands with him. In 2015, they fought against each other and lost. In 2020, they fought together and won. That contrast alone defines Bihar’s electoral arithmetic.
After back-to-back lessons in Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi, the BJP has learned that depending too heavily on one face can backfire. PM Modi is now deployed like a precision weapon, used where his presence moves numbers and withheld where local leaders must build the ground game.
As October 24 nears, Bihar holds its breath again. The stages will be built, the crowds will gather and the slogans will echo across the plains. Modi will speak. Nitish will wait. But beyond the sound and spectacle lies a single and stubborn question: can the Modi–Nitish formula still turn applause into votes?
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: ZEE News
