Bihar Exit Polls 2025: Will voters choose hung assembly? Exit polls favour NDA, anti-incumbency may spring surprise

Bihar Assembly Election 2025.

Will there be a hung assembly in Bihar with no party getting the clear mandate of the electorate? Though some of the exit polls have predicted a return of the Nitish Kumar-led NDA, a hung assembly can not be ruled out. Exit polls have failed many times in India and other countries. All the exit polls held after the Lok Sabha election 2024 predicted a landslide victory for the BJP and about 400 seats for the ruling alliance. However, the BJP could win just 240 seats, less than the halfway mark in the 543-member house. The ruling coalition of the NDA won 292 seats, 100 seats fewer than predicted in exit polls. 

Bihar Exit Poll 2025

So, it cannot be ruled out that the exit polls fail and the actual result may surprise everyone. Analysts have said that there is a neck-and-neck fight between the ruling combination of the NDA and the opposition alliance of Mahagathbandhan. Analysts also believe that an undercurrent of anti-incumbency was felt across Bihar, though it can not be called a tsunami. 

JDU-BJP Bihar Election Exit Poll

Similarly, local BJP leaders and grassroots workers were upset at many seats because the seat was allotted to some one from outside. Folk singer Maithili Thakur is a unique example. The Saffron party fielded her from Alinagar, ignoring its own contender, who defected to the opposition camp. As Maithili has been living in Delhi since her childhood, her own party workers called her an outsider despite her mother’s village being situated in the constituency. People went to the extent of challenging her to tell the name of “pradhan” of her panchayat. 

Bihar hung assembly

The narrative of “jungle raj” did not sit well with the electorate despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi making it a poll plank and hammering the issue time and again. Similarly, the issue of infiltrators did not go down well. On the contrary, people asked why the Union government did not stop it if this was the case. They also questioned Home Minister Amit Shah and the “double engine” government on this issue. 

Bihar Assembly Exit Poll 2025 

However, the exit polls predict a clear majority for the NDA. Matrize New Communication has found in its exit polls that the NDA government may return for yet another term. It may get 48% of popular votes, which may translate into 147 to 167 seats. Matrize has predicted that the RJD-led opposition alliance of Mahagathbandhan is likely to get 70-90 seats in the Bihar Election 2025. 

Bihar Elections 2025

According to pollsters like People’s Pulse and People’s Insight, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is headed for a clear majority. They have placed the opposition Mahagathbandhan at the second position, while the Prashant Kishor-led front Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) is predicted to face a massive drubbing. People’s Pulse shows a decisive lead for the NDA with 46.2% vote share and a projected 133–159 seats. MGB trails at 37.9% with 75–101 seats, while Jan Suraaj registers 9.7% but only 0–5 seats.