Patna: The question of whether Nitish Kumar will continue to remain Bihar’s chief minister will be answered on November 14, twenty-five days from now. Union Home Minister Amit Shah stated on October 16 that the legislative party would decide the next chief minister after the elections. Since then, speculation has intensified across Bihar that if the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) wins, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a major ally of the ruling alliance in the state, might sideline Nitish and claim the chief ministership for itself. But analysts say this scenario is highly unlikely.
For the BJP, they argue, installing its own CM appears difficult. They explain following major factors to explain this situation.
JD(U) vs RJD: 71 Seats Go Head-To-Head
In the upcoming assembly elections in the state, the Nitish’s Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) is contesting 101 seats. The Mahagathbandhan or INDIA bloc (the Rashtriya Janata Dal or RJD, the Congress, the Vikashseel Insan Part or VIP and Left parties combine) has not announced candidates for five of these seats, leaving 96. Out of these 96, 59 seats (61%) are in direct contests between the JD(U) and the RJD led by Tejashwi Yadav. Including the Left, this number rises to 71 (74%).
These 71 constituencies are expected to elect legislators unlikely to align with the BJP. Senior political analyst SM Diwakar explained that in Bihar, politics under Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar has focussed on direct contests to limit BJP’s influence and independence. He said this strategy prevents the BJP from exerting pressure.
In the 2020 elections, 71 constituencies witnessed the JD(U) and the RJD face off. The RJD won 48 of these, giving Tejashwi a strike rate of 67.6% against the JD(U). Out of his 75 contested constituencies, 48 were wins over JD(U) candidates. The Mahagathbandhan fell short of a majority by just 12 seats, winning only 110 overall. The JD(U) managed to win just 21 of the 71 seats in direct competition with the RJD, a strike rate of 29%.
In 13 of these 71 seats, the JD(U) had lost due to the presence of Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha. This year, both are aligned with the NDA, which may shift outcomes.
JD(U) Gains Edge With Chirag And Kushwaha
In 2020, the NDA fielded candidates on 115 JD(U) seats, 110 BJP seats, seven Jitam Ram Manjhi-led Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) seats and 11 Mukesh Sahni-led VIP seats. Results were 43 for the JD(U), 74 for the BJP and four each for the HAM and the VIP.
Chirag Paswan contested independently in 2020, costing the NDA 42 seats. The JD(U) bore the brunt with 36 lost seats, the VIP lost four, the BJP and the HAM lost one each.
Upendra Kushwaha also contested separately, costing the JD(U) five seats. In total, the JD(U) lost about 41 seats because of these two leaders.
With both Chirag and Kushwaha now in the NDA, the JD(U) may perform strongly in these 41 constituencies.
Diwakar highlighted that their inclusion could consolidate Dalit and Koeri voters, potentially increasing the JD(U)’s seat tally this year.
LJP (RV)’s 13 Long-Lost Seats
Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) or LJP (RV) is the NDA’s third largest party, contesting 29 seats. Media reports suggested that the BJP tried to pressure Nitish by giving more seats to Chirag. Nitish was reportedly unhappy with some seat allocations, but adjustments were later made.
Of the 29 seats allotted to the LJP (RV), 26 were lost by the NDA in 2020. Thirteen of these seats have not seen an NDA win in the past 15 years, covering the 2010, 2015 and 2020 elections.
Overall, according to data and expert analysis, it is unlikely that the BJP can sideline Nitish and install its own chief minister in Bihar. If the BJP tries to push Nitish out, he may still have the option to align with the RJD.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: ZEE News
