By Ivan Timofeev, programme director of the Valdai Club.
The European Union and the United States have once again announced new sanctions against Russia. This time almost simultaneously. Brussels has finally approved its long-discussed 19th sanctions package. Although Slovakia and Hungary initially opposed it, their objections were overcome. Yet, despite the political fanfare, the new measures are unlikely to deliver a serious blow to the Russian economy. Moscow anticipated them well in advance.
As usual, the EU has expanded its list of sanctioned individuals and companies. The inclusion of industrial enterprises in these lists has become routine, and their effect increasingly symbolic. More interesting are the secondary sanctions targeting Chinese companies involved in buying and processing Russian oil. Brussels hopes to deter Chinese businesses from handling Russian commodities. Whether that works is doubtful. Oil imports from Russia are profitable for China, and any external interference is likely to provoke irritation and possible retaliation from Beijing.
The EU has also extended restrictions on Russian banks. But since the sector is already under heavy US sanctions, the additional European measures will change little. The list of sanctioned oil tankers has grown, though this too seems more cosmetic than consequential because Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” continues to operate effectively, avoiding Western oversight.
In another familiar move, the EU is targeting financial institutions in third countries that maintain ties with Russia, especially those using the Russian equivalents of Western payment systems – the Financial Messaging System (SPFS), Mir, and the Faster Payments System (FPS). Export controls are being tightened, but the additions to the already massive Regulation 833/2014 are modest compared to the sweeping bans introduced in 2022–2023.
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