Bangladesh has delivered a dramatic political verdict. In an election many believed was tilting in one direction, voters swung the other way decisively. The sweeping victory of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has not only reshaped Dhaka’s power structure but also opened a crucial question for the region — can Tarique Rahman steady a country that has seen 18 turbulent months and reset its strained ties with India?
To grasp the scale of the moment, it is important to consider what nearly happened.
The 13th parliamentary elections were far from inclusive. The Awami League, the country’s largest political party, was barred from contesting. The ban followed pressure from the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), which emerged as the dominant force after former prime minister Sheikh Hasina left Dhaka on 5 August 2024.
In the period that followed, the JeI consolidated its influence across the state, with Mohammed Yunus serving as the public face of the interim administration. Over 18 months, key institutions, from the judiciary and bureaucracy to universities and sections of the media, were reshaped. Senior officials were pressured to step down and replaced with figures seen as aligned with the new order.
The JeI also distanced itself from earlier alliances with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), instead building a coalition of Islamist groups. Among those brought into the interim set-up were Islami Andolan Bangladesh, Hizb ut-Tahrir and Hefazat-e-Islam, all advocating a greater role for Sharia in public life.
The focus shifted to constitutional and structural “reforms”, culminating in the July National Charter of 2025. Critics argued this effort sought to dilute the secular spirit of the 1972 Constitution and reframe national memory around the 1971 Liberation War. Women’s freedoms and minority rights came under increasing strain. Law and order deteriorated sharply, with mob action often replacing institutional authority.
Elections held on 12 February were widely expected to cement the JeI’s hold on power, either alone or through a unity arrangement with the BNP. Publicly, the party projected confidence. But the mood inside polling booths told a different story.
Voters, including women, minorities and younger citizens, shifted decisively towards the BNP. The so-called ‘Gen Z’ electorate also rejected the National Citizens’ Party, formed by figures linked to the July 2024 uprising. The outcome was emphatic: the BNP surged past the 200-seat mark, while the JeI, despite winning a record 68 seats, fell far short of expectations.
The message was clear. After 18 months of economic stress and insecurity, patience had run out.
Tarique Rahman moved quickly to shape the tone of his victory. He banned triumphal street celebrations by party workers, mindful of past instances, such as 2001, when post-election festivities turned violent against minorities. In some districts, BNP activists removed locks placed on Awami League offices by the interim administration, signalling tentative moves towards political normalisation.
At his first press conference on 14 February, Rahman struck a measured note. “Law and order must be maintained at all costs,” he said, acknowledging widespread concern over public safety. Asked by a Pakistani journalist about the extradition of Sheikh Hasina, he replied calmly, “It is a legal process.”
His early administrative steps have included replacing the Cabinet Secretary and beginning to loosen the JeI’s grip on state machinery. Yet the challenge is formidable. The JeI’s parliamentary presence, especially in constituencies along the Indian border, ensures it will remain influential.
For India, the stakes are high. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first foreign leader to congratulate Rahman on his “decisive victory”, expressing support for a “democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh” and readiness to strengthen “our multifaceted relations and advance our common development goals”. A cordial telephone exchange followed, signalling an intent to reset ties.
Two broad issues dominate New Delhi’s concerns — security and economic cooperation.
During the Yunus period, Indian officials were alarmed by developments they believed harmed their security environment. These included alleged renewed support for insurgent elements in India’s northeast, the release of convicted extremists, and closer military contacts between Bangladesh and Pakistan. Along the long land border, over 4,000 kilometres, illegal migration, cattle smuggling and anti-India rhetoric again became flashpoints.
Close coordination between the BSF and the Border Guards of Bangladesh will be essential. Protocols for joint border management exist, but they require political backing from Dhaka to function smoothly.
Economic ties are equally pressing. Over the past 15 years, trade and connectivity between the two neighbours deepened significantly. Yet decisions taken during the interim period disrupted access for Bangladesh’s garment sector to Indian raw materials such as cotton and yarn. Factory closures followed, leaving thousands, particularly women, out of work. While countries such as Turkey, Pakistan and the United States have sought to expand their footprint, economic geography still favours cooperation with India.
Rahman has spoken of pursuing a “Bangladesh-first” foreign policy. India, for its part, continues to frame its regional approach as “Neighbourhood First”. The two ideas need not clash. But goodwill alone will not suffice.
Restoring institutional balance at home, managing the influence of Islamist blocs in parliament and rebuilding trust with New Delhi will demand steady leadership. Whether Tarique Rahman can translate electoral momentum into lasting stability and repair a relationship strained over the past 18 months will shape not only Bangladesh’s trajectory but the strategic landscape of South Asia.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: ZEE News
