‘Cannibalising Labor’s vote’: One Nation’s insurgence into NSW

NSW voters are turning their backs on the major parties, with One Nation seizing support from the Minns government and the Liberals’ primary vote slipping to its lowest level since the last state election.

With the next poll less than a year away, One Nation is starting its insurgence in NSW despite Pauline Hanson’s party no longer having any MPs in state parliament, nor any confirmed candidates for the 2027 election.

At its peak, there were three One Nation MPs in the upper house, including former federal Labor leader Mark Latham, but they have all since defected and sit as independents.

In a clear sign that voters in NSW are unhappy with the major parties, 46 per cent say they would vote for someone other than Labor or the Coalition, mirroring the federal sentiment.

One Nation’s primary vote is on 23 per cent in NSW, only two percentage points lower than the Coalition, which is on 25 per cent. NSW Labor has slumped from 37 per cent to 29.

Labor leader Chris Minns remains the preferred premier with 38 per cent of voters while Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane, who replaced Mark Speakman in November, is on 17 per cent.

The survey of 1100 voters, conducted by Resolve Political Monitor from March 9 to 14, is the first time One Nation’s votes have been tallied outside the “other” category, which includes the Greens and independents.

Resolve director Jim Reed said One Nation was proving to be a nationwide threat.

“We are now asking people if they will vote One Nation overtly, rather than just including them in an ‘other’ category as they have certainly been on the rise, and this latest poll now shows their primary vote nipping at the heels of the major parties,” Reed said.

“One Nation started by taking vote from the Coalition parties, but are now cannibalising Labor’s vote, too. Many of those shifting tell us they simply want a change to the two-party system because it’s not working for them.”

However, Reed said it was a hit on the major parties rather than support for One Nation.

“This is not really a positive endorsement of One Nation,” he said. “They don’t really have any state-level personalities any more, and no local policies to speak of. This is a protest and a vote for change.

“Labor were able to keep the wolf from the doors for a while off the back of Minns’s response to the Bondi attack and protests, but now he’s announced his retirement voters are peeling away. He is Labor for most people.”

Minns has for the first time indicated when he intends to call time on his political career, revealing he will not be in parliament when Metro West opens in 2032.

Asked this month for his “dream for how this city looks” in 2032 when the metro opens, Minns said that he would not be premier in 2032 and that he would be a member of the public.

There will be an election in 2031.

Minns will face his second election as Labor leader on March 13 next year. He led Labor to minority government in 2023 after it floundered in opposition for 12 years.

His popularity soared after the government’s response to the Bondi terror attacks and his likeability reached levels in January not seen since his post-election honeymoon.

Floating his looming retirement has prompted succession speculation, with deputy premier Prue Car, Health Minister Ryan Park and Planning Minister Paul Scully largely seen as the most likely replacements. Despite this, 75 per cent of voters were undecided on Minns’ successor.

While about half of all voters were familiar with the ministers, only 10 per cent believed Car, who is also the education minister, would make the best replacement, followed by 8 per cent for Park and 7 per cent for Scully.

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