China is pressing ahead with one of its largest and most controversial infrastructure ventures, a vast hydropower system on the Yarlung Tsangpo river, a project that could have profound consequences for India, Bangladesh and the fragile ecosystems of the Brahmaputra basin. Rising in Tibet, the Yarlung Tsangpo flows into India as the Brahmaputra, a critical lifeline for millions who rely on it for agriculture, fishing and daily water needs, before continuing into Bangladesh. Experts warn that large-scale intervention at the river’s upper reaches could alter its natural rhythms in ways that remain poorly understood.
According to CNN, the $168 billion project will harness a dramatic 2,000-metre drop in altitude to generate electricity. While Beijing promotes the scheme as a major source of clean energy, specialists caution that it risks displacing indigenous communities and destabilising one of Asia’s most sensitive river systems.
The plan involves an intricate network of dams, reservoirs and underground power stations connected by tunnels, making it among the most ambitious hydropower projects ever attempted. Brian Eyler, director of the Energy, Water and Sustainability Program at the Stimson Centre in Washington, described it as “the most sophisticated the planet has ever seen, adding, “It’s also the riskiest and potentially the most dangerous.”
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has rejected fears of downstream harm, saying the project has undergone “decades of in-depth research” and that authorities have “implemented thorough measures for engineering safety and ecological protection to ensure it will not adversely affect downstream areas”.
For India, however, the implications are significant. Any alteration of water flows in the upper Brahmaputra could disrupt sediment transport, fish migration and seasonal flooding, processes vital to agriculture and biodiversity downstream. Although the river receives substantial inflows from monsoon rains and tributaries within India, experts say upstream regulation could still disturb its natural pulse.
The project also carries strategic overtones. “If you connect the dots of Chinese infrastructure development in the Himalayas, especially in areas where China borders India along Tibet, they are strategically placed,” said Rishi Gupta, assistant director at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New Delhi. “The project aligns with China’s broader goal of leveraging its natural resources to consolidate control over critical regions like Tibet and its borders.”
Environmental concerns are compounded by the ecological sensitivity of the Yarlung Tsangpo region, which is bordered by national-level nature reserves and home to endangered species including Bengal tigers, clouded leopards, black bears and red pandas. Scientists and rights groups have long questioned the wisdom of large infrastructure projects in such fragile terrain.
The human cost remains another unresolved issue. Tens of thousands of people live in the counties affected by the project, including indigenous groups such as the Monpa and Lhoba, among China’s smallest officially recognised ethnic minorities. Chinese authorities have acknowledged that the scheme will require the “relocation of local communities” in Tibet.
“People could face forced displacement from their ancestral homes… destruction to the source of local income, destruction of local ecological balance and wildlife habitat, influx of migrant workers from China replacing the local population in the region,” said Tempa Gyaltsen Zamlha, deputy director of the Tibet Policy Institute in Dharamsala.
Concerns have also been voiced by Indian political leaders. In July, Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu warned that the project posed an existential threat to the state and could be weaponised as a “water bomb”.
“China cannot be trusted. No one knows what they will do and when,” Khandu told the Press Trust of India, cautioning that sudden releases or prolonged withholding of water could either flood or dry out vast areas of the region.
New Delhi has said it is “carefully monitoring” China’s plans and has pledged to take “necessary measures to protect our interests, including preventive and corrective measures to safeguard the life and livelihood of Indian citizens.”
China’s management of the Mekong River has further fuelled scepticism. Operators of Chinese dams on the Mekong have been accused of exacerbating droughts in downstream countries such as Vietnam by regulating flows to maximise power generation, allegations Beijing has denied.
The uncertainty is already influencing decisions in India. Officials at the country’s largest state-backed hydropower company are moving ahead with a proposed 11,200-megawatt dam on the Brahmaputra, partly in response to developments upstream.
With both countries advancing massive projects on the same river system, analysts warn of escalating risks. Eyler argues that cooperation could mitigate the dangers. “If the two countries could work together on the overall design of the mega-dam system, then some risk could be avoided,” he said. Without such coordination, he warned, “a dam-building race between India and China is a race to the bottom.”
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