Bangladesh has delivered a political earthquake. The sweeping victory of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) ends nearly two decades of one-sided rule and opens the door to a new era in Dhaka, one that could redraw the diplomatic map of South Asia.
With power shifting after years of dominance by Sheikh Hasina, the region is watching closely. India, Pakistan and China all have deep stakes in Bangladesh’s future. The question now is whether Tarique Rahman’s rise signals not just a change of government, but a reset of alliances across the Bay of Bengal.
A decisive mandate
The Election Commission formally sealed the outcome on Saturday by publishing the official gazette of elected members. Preliminary results showed the BNP and its allies securing at least 212 of 299 parliamentary seats. The opposition Jamaat-e-Islami and its partners won 77.
For many observers, this was Bangladesh’s first genuinely competitive election in almost twenty years. It marked a clean break from the Hasina era, which ended after a mass uprising in 2024 forced her into exile in India.
The victory hands 60-year-old Tarique Rahman a powerful mandate and a difficult foreign policy landscape.
Soon after the results were announced, the prime ministers of both India and Pakistan extended congratulations, signalling how closely the region is tracking Dhaka’s next steps. The outcome is widely described as “a new turning point in crafting bilateral relations with India and Pakistan”.
Resetting ties with India?
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi moved swiftly. Posting on X, he wrote that India would “continue to stand in support of a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh,” adding that Rahman’s win “shows the trust of the people of Bangladesh in your leadership.” He later spoke to Rahman by phone.
“As two close neighbours with deep-rooted historical and cultural ties, I reaffirmed India’s continued commitment to the peace, progress, and prosperity of both our peoples,” Modi said.
New Delhi had cultivated especially close ties with Hasina, seeing Bangladesh as central to its rivalry with China in South Asia. But relations soured sharply after her fall. India’s refusal to extradite Hasina, sentenced to death by Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal over her handling of the deadly 2024 protests, deepened tensions.
Yet India has begun adjusting to the new reality. Earlier this year, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar attended the funeral of former prime minister Khaleda Zia, Rahman’s mother, signalling an openness to engage with a future BNP government.
Still, difficult issues remain. Water-sharing disputes over rivers such as the Teesta are unresolved. Border shootings by Indian forces continue to stir anger. Bangladesh also runs a significant trade deficit with India.
Domestically, Rahman faces pressure to adopt a firmer tone. Many young Bangladeshis accuse India of excessive interference in their country’s affairs. Any reset with New Delhi will need to navigate both strategic necessity and public sentiment.
A Pakistan opening
Where India faces uncertainty, Pakistan sees opportunity. Under the interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, Dhaka and Islamabad restored direct flights, eased visa rules and exchanged high-level civilian and military visits.
According to reports, analysts say that progress may accelerate under the BNP. The election, one observer noted, “marks the end of Awami League’s long dalliance” with India and “a reopening of close relations” with Pakistan.
“Bangladesh does not have to balance its relations with India and Pakistan,” the analyst argued, as per the reports. Ties with Pakistan have improved. Pakistan should persist with its present policy of giving priority to its relations with Dhaka.”
Last month, Pakistan’s military announced discussions with Bangladesh over the possible sale of JF-17 fighter jets, a sign that defence cooperation may expand.
For Islamabad, this is a chance to rebuild a relationship that has been fragile since 1971. For Dhaka, it offers leverage in dealing with India.
Deepening links with China
Perhaps the most significant relationship, however, will be with Beijing.
Under Hasina, China strengthened its economic footprint in Bangladesh through infrastructure projects and defence cooperation linked to the Belt and Road Initiative. At the same time, Beijing cultivated ties across the political spectrum.
The interim government that followed Hasina secured around $2.1 billion in Chinese investments, loans and grants. Senior Bangladeshi figures, including Yunus, visited Beijing during this period.
On Friday, the Chinese embassy congratulated the BNP and said it was ready to work with the new government on “writing new chapters of China-Bangladesh relations”.
According to the reports, the BNP is likely to “further deepen its relations with China, hearkening back to the past experience of friendly ties” during earlier BNP administrations. Yet they also warn of “growing American opposition to China’s increased presence” in the region, another factor Rahman must weigh.
A delicate balancing act
Bangladesh now finds itself at the centre of an intensifying rivalry in the Bay of Bengal. India and China are locked in a strategic competition. India and Pakistan remain hostile. The United States is watching China’s rise with suspicion.
Rahman has pledged a “Bangladesh First” approach, promising that all foreign relations will serve national sovereignty, security and public welfare.
That principle will soon be tested.
With a strong parliamentary majority behind him, Rahman has room to act. But every move, towards Delhi, Islamabad or Beijing, will carry consequences. Bangladesh’s voters have delivered change at home. Whether that change reshapes the region will depend on how boldly and how carefully the new government charts its course.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: ZEE News
