New Delhi: Setting a new record, bilateral trade between India and China surpassed $155 billion in 2025. This was over 12 percent higher than the previous year. China’s ambassador to India said that the growth followed a successful meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Tianjin last August that strengthened ties between the two nations.
China also expressed support for India’s leadership role in BRICS and indicated readiness to collaborate on advancing the interests of the Global South.
The record trade numbers come at a time when India and the United States are reached a trade deal. While China has expressed skepticism about the understanding’s long-term stability, experts suggest that it could directly disadvantage Beijing, even as bilateral trade between India and China will continue to be unaffected.
Chinese state media has raised questions about India’s commitment to the deal, particularly regarding claims that New Delhi may stop buying Russian oil. Experts have pointed out that India maintains long-standing ties with Russia and that a sudden cessation of oil imports appears unlikely.
They suggest India may continue purchasing Russian oil through discreet shipping methods, even after an agreement with the United States.
Chinese media have questioned if India can really buy $500 billion of US energy, technology, agriculture and other goods, since India’s imports from the United States were much lower last year.
Strategists view the deal as part of the United States’ broader effort to counter China’s growing influence. The US National Defense Strategy of 2026 identified China as a primary competitor with the capability to change the global order. According to the strategy, Washington aims to strengthen its position in the Indo-Pacific region, collaborating with allies to maintain a balance of power and prevent dominance by any single country.
Over the past two decades, the United States has built strong ties with India to counter China’s influence. Trade agreements, defense partnerships and strategic initiatives like the Quad (India, Australia, Japan and the United States) have been key tools.
Analysts say that India’s careful diplomacy and selective engagement with China send a message to the United States and Europe about India’s independent stance, even while cooperating on regional security.
From a commercial perspective, the trade deal positions India as a partner capable of balancing China’s influence. The United States, the United Kingdom and European trade measures have changed the flow of global commerce in India’s favour, while giving companies incentives to diversify production outside China. India’s finance minister has indicated that the “China Plus One” strategy will gain momentum, encouraging firms to expand manufacturing in India along with China.
This could directly impact China’s economy and its dominance in global supply chains.
Market experts emphasise that while the deal may counter China, India must ensure it is not used solely as a tool of US strategy. Indian companies may continue benefiting from competitively priced Chinese goods, while the deal opens avenues for critical minerals and rare earth resources in India that reduce global reliance on China. Investments in rare earth corridors in Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are expected to further strengthen India’s position and pose challenges to China’s supply dominance.
The trade agreement also intersects with US initiatives to secure essential minerals through projects like Project Volt, which aims to build commercial stockpiles worth $12 billion. India joining the deal could help the United States reduce China’s control over important supply chains and increase India’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
The deal has the potential to benefit India while indirectly challenging China’s global economic interests. Analysts agree that Beijing may face pressure from India’s rising role as an alternative production hub and critical supply source, even as New Delhi maintains strong bilateral trade and diplomatic ties with Beijing.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: ZEE News
