‘Shock and awe’ was the term used to describe the US operation against Iraq in spring 2003. In hindsight, it marked a turning point. The rapid defeat of the Ba’athist regime and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein created the impression that the US had acquired the ability to reshape entire regions at will.
Reality turned out differently. The war did bring change, but not the kind its architects envisaged. The old order in the Middle East collapsed, replaced not by stability but by a chain of crises that demanded enormous resources to contain, with limited success. The blow to America’s global reputation proved lasting.
At the end of winter 2026, the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. In a sense, Iran’s emergence as the principal adversary of both countries is a direct consequence of the Iraq campaign two decades earlier. Whether today’s attackers can achieve quick and decisive results remains unclear. Iran is the most serious opponent the US has confronted directly in many decades. Even if military success is swift, the balance of forces is not in Iran’s favour, and even if the post-war chaos of Iraq is avoided by steering clear of internal occupation, the broader consequences are likely to disappoint.
The immediate driver of the current escalation is Israel’s determination to exploit a unique constellation of circumstances. From West Jerusalem’s perspective, this is a moment to secure a dominant regional position with Washington’s backing. The vision is of a regional order centered on Israel to which others must adapt, willingly or otherwise.
US President Donald Trump and the ideologues shaping his Middle East policy, many of whom are also relatives and business partners, have their own calculations. Israeli military superiority, combined with deepening commercial ties between Israel and the Gulf monarchies, would allow the US to channel economic benefits primarily to itself. Major geo-economic and logistical projects of interest to China, Russia, and India would become dependent on American oversight. Washington would expand its control over key markets, particularly raw materials and military-technical cooperation. At the same time, the supposed ineffectiveness of groupings created without US participation, above all BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, would be put on display.
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