Gaza War’s Domino Effect: How Two Years Of Conflict Altered The Middle East’s Power Balance

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New Delhi: The war in Gaza has left its imprint far beyond the strip itself. Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Yemen feel its consequences. Analysts say the conflict has reshaped the Middle East and shifted the world’s engagement with the region.

Talking to BBC, Dr. Julie Norman, associate professor of politics and international relations at University College London, says, “It is impossible to overstate how profoundly these two years have changed the region and the world’s relationship with it.”

The violence began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched its deadliest attack in Israel’s history. Nearly 1,200 people died, and 251 were taken hostage.

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Dr. Sanam Wakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, told Reuters, “The attack shattered the perception that Israel’s security could not be breached.”

Israel, controlling Gaza’s borders, coastline and airspace, responded with a full-scale military offensive. Hamas’ Health Ministry says that over 68,000 Palestinians have died over two years. The United Nations recognises these figures.

Dr. Norman describes the devastation in Gaza as “beyond imagination” and warns the impact will resonate for generations. The October 7 attack triggered a domino effect. Israel’s airstrikes met retaliatory attacks from Hamas-affiliated armed groups, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis (Yemen).

These groups, along with Hamas and Syria, have long been part of Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance”.

American diplomat Elliott Abrams says, “Israel faced threats from multiple sides and tried to contain them, but after October 7, resistance alone was no longer sufficient. Israel shifted its strategy.”

Tel Aviv targeted Hamas first, then Hezbollah and then Iran. In September 2024, Israel destroyed thousands of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies in Lebanon. Bombings followed, and a ground campaign unfolded in the south.

Top Hezbollah leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, were killed, along with critical infrastructure and weapons caches.

Two months later, Syrian rebels revolted against President Bashar al-Assad. His 24-year rule collapsed in just two weeks.

Dr. Norman emphasises that Iran and Hezbollah’s weakening left Assad’s government without crucial support.

Israel struck Syrian military bases to prevent future threats. Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Shara, formerly linked with Al-Qaeda, pledged to prevent external attacks from using Syrian territory.

Tensions between Israel and Iran escalated decades ago. Proxy systems involving Hamas and Hezbollah had long shielded Iran.

Abrams says, “Israel and Iran had clashed indirectly, secretly and carefully. Direct confrontation had never happened until April and October 2024, when aerial strikes transformed the standoff into open conflict.”

In June 2025, Israel struck Iran’s nuclear facilities, sparking a 12-day war. The United States participated with bunker-buster bombs. Qatar mediated a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

The impact was sweeping. Iran’s proxy network weakened significantly. Analysts say Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are far weaker than before. Russia lost a key regional ally with Assad’s fall. President Vladimir Putin and Ahmed al-Shaara had opposed each other during Syria’s civil war, but Moscow had used force to support Assad.

China’s influence in the Middle East waned. Dr. Norman explains, “Before the war, China mediated peace and trade, facilitating Iran-Saudi ties. The Gaza conflict shifted U.S. attention back, and Beijing stepped back considerably.”

Turkey now emerges as a key ally of Syria’s new government. Dr. Norman observes, “For decades, Syria operated under Iran and Russia’s sway. Turkey now has a strong role shaping regional outcomes.”

Diplomatic efforts by Egypt, Qatar and Turkey helped broker a Gaza ceasefire and secure the release of 20 hostages.

Abrams says the United States guarantees and President Trump’s pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were decisive.

Dr. Norman emphasises, “Qatar, Egypt and Turkey played a critical role in bringing Hamas to the table and ensuring Trump’s proposal was taken seriously. Recognition moves by France, Britain, Canada and Australia also added pressure.”

The ceasefire and Israel’s international isolation underline the conflict’s complexity.

Dr. Wakil says, “Israel appears militarily dominant, but it faces unprecedented diplomatic isolation.”

The United Nations continues to recognise Gaza and the West Bank as Israeli-occupied territories. Experts caution that questions remain about disarmament, funding, security forces and Palestinian recognition.

Dr. Norman concludes, “The region has changed fundamentally. There is renewed focus, hope for commitment to constructive engagement and a chance to move from decades of war toward stability.”

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