Iowa State vs. Texas Tech prediction: Big 12 Tournament picks, odds

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Texas Tech takes on Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinal round as a 4.5-point underdog. 

The Cyclones are coming off a ridiculous 49-point blowout over Arizona State, which led to the firing of longtime Sun Devils head coach Bobby Hurley. 

It was the Red Raiders, though, who came out on top when these two teams faced off two weeks ago, handing Iowa State their only home loss of the season in an 82-73 win.

Texas Tech comes into March Madness without its best player, JT Toppin, who tore his ACL in mid-February. 

Toppin was averaging 21.8 points on 54.8 shooting with 10.8 rebounds, leaving a major hole in the Red Raiders’ offensive attack. 

While his absence will no doubt hurt their Big 12 and NCAA Tournament chances, a little-known senior guard has stepped up with Toppin sidelined, giving Texas Tech faithful a player to count on. 

In five games without Toppin, Donovan Atwell, who transferred from UNC Greensboro before the season, has stepped up big time, averaging a team-leading 19.6 points per game. 

Texas Tech forward Donovan Atwell (12) celebrates with teammates after an NCAA college basketball game against Iowa State, Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026, in Ames, Iowa. AP

In that matchup against Iowa State last month, Atwell was lethal from three, hitting 6-of-10 attempts and dropping 18 total points. 

That was just another big game from deep he’s had of late. 

Atwell has made at least three 3-pointers in 13 straight games, and his volume has gone up considerably of late. 


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He’s averaged 12 3-point attempts per game over his last three contests and made at least five threes in five of his last six. 

With Toppin out, look for Atwell to keep up this shooting hot streak.  

The Play: Donovan Atwell to score over 14.5 points (-112, bet365 Sportsbook)


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Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.

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