Iran war: What does it mean for US voters? In November, we will know

With US casualties in the Iran war now reported, the longer the war continues the less support there is in America for President Donald Trump and the Republicans. Until the war on Iran ends, the political consequences will not be truly clear for the November midterm elections for control of Congress.

Sometimes, a president can win when he loses. John F. Kennedy, barely three months in office in 1961, survived the disastrous failure of the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba to overthrow the Castro regime. (Today, 65 years later, Trump is strangling Cuba’s economy to bring regime change to Cuba.) JFK’s honest ownership of the fiasco – “The final responsibilities of any failure is mine, and mine alone” – spiked his approval to more than 80 per cent.

Presidents can lose when they lose. Jimmy Carter suffered an immense blow to the confidence in him by the American people when a rescue mission failed to free the hostages taken by the Iranians following the 1979 Islamic revolution. Trump cited this ordeal in announcing the war with Iran.

“Among the regime’s very first acts was to back a violent takeover of the US embassy in Tehran, holding dozens of American hostages for 444 days,” Trump said. Carter’s approval rating was only 36 per cent going into the 1980 re-election campaign and he lost decisively to Ronald Reagan.

Sometimes, presidents lose when they win. George H.W. Bush enjoyed an enormous burst of popularity after victory in the First Persian Gulf War in 1990-91 to liberate Kuwait from Iraq and Saddam Hussein. Bush’s approval reached stratospheric levels: 89 per cent when he declared victory. But 18 months later with the country gripped by a recession, Bush could not cushion or counter. His approval rating collapsed to 29 per cent. Bush was defeated by Bill Clinton in the 1992 election.

That campaign was most remembered for one line that has become legendary in American politics: “It’s the economy, stupid.” It will be the economy in the midterm elections this November that will be the decisive factor – even if Trump brings home a huge regime change victory in Iran, cheered on by Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states and governments around the world.

On foreign policy and the use of military force, however, the clear mood among the American people – especially after Afghanistan, Iraq, and the horrific costs of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now in its fifth year – is that they want an end to the “forever wars”.

That is what Trump campaigned on. In the Iowa presidential caucuses in 2024, Trump asked voters to send him back into the White House so that he could “turn the page forever on those foolish, stupid days of never-ending wars. They never ended”. In his 2025 inaugural address, Trump said, “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end – and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.”

This Iran war is a war of choice.

Going into this war, Trump was underwater in public opinion of his foreign policy management of Iran, Venezuela and Greenland. Seventy per cent of Americans did not want Trump to attack Iran – seven months after Trump “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capability.

This war has already obliterated attention to Trump’s State of the Union address on his policies for the economy. For hardcore MAGA supporters, war in Iran means “America Last” and is a “betrayal”.

The president in the Oval Office owns the economy. This dominant factor going into the midterms will remain what it is today: cost-of-living pressures, inflation, tariffs, job security and their outlook for the year ahead.

Across the political spectrum in Washington, Iran is the most hated regime in the world. While all Democratic leaders in Congress would welcome regime change in Iran – for all the reasons cited by Trump in his video address – there is the ongoing issue of his wielding absolute executive power at home and abroad. They are insisting Trump gets approval from Congress for this war.

Trump’s first attack on Iran did not raise his popularity. It is several points lower today than it was in June. Even if Trump achieves all his objectives for this war, that alone will not carry the Republicans to victory in November.

Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.

Get a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion and inform your own. Sign up for our Opinion newsletter.