TEHRAN – Iraq’s parliamentary elections have been more than a routine exercise in democracy. The elections unfolded against a backdrop of regional wars, shifting alliances, and the enduring weight of foreign interference that has shaped Iraq’s modern history. While the vote will determine the composition of parliament for the next four years, the deeper contest is over sovereignty itself — whether Iraq’s future will be decided by its people or constrained by external agendas.
Prime Minister Mohammad Shia alSudani, seeking a second term, cast his ballot in Baghdad alongside his mother, presenting the election as proof of Iraq’s commitment to peaceful transfer of power. By law, the vote must occur at least 45 days before the end of the current parliament’s term in January 2026. Iraq’s political system remains structured around sectarian powersharing, with the presidency reserved for Kurds, the premiership for Shias, and the speakership for Sunnis. The next prime minister will emerge from whichever coalition can negotiate the largest bloc, underscoring the centrality of alliances in Iraq’s parliamentary politics.
Yet the mechanics of coalitionbuilding cannot be separated from the broader context. The boycott of the influential Sadrist Movement, led by cleric Muqtada alSadr, reflects both internal rivalries and disillusionment with a system repeatedly disrupted by outside pressures. AlSadr’s bloc won the largest number of seats in 2021 but withdrew after failed negotiations, leaving rival Shia factions to dominate. His absence this week highlights the fragility of Iraq’s democratic process, where domestic divisions are often exacerbated by foreign involvement.
The shadow of the U.S. invasion in 2003 still looms large. That intervention unleashed sectarian conflict and created the vacuum in which ISIS thrived. Even after ISIS was defeated — largely through the sacrifices of Iraqi forces and resistance groups — Washington continues to exert influence, pressing Baghdad to curb factions it views as hostile to its interests. These groups, however, are widely seen inside Iraq as defenders of sovereignty, having borne the brunt of the fight against terrorism and foreign domination. Their persistence is a reminder that Iraq’s stability has never been secured by external armies but by the resilience of its own people.
The election also unfolded amid regional upheaval: wars against Gaza and Lebanon, confrontation between Israel and Iran, and the fall of Syria’s President Bashar Assad last year. These events underscore Iraq’s vulnerability to external shocks, yet they also highlight its strategic importance. Iraq’s oil, gas, and farmland are increasingly eyed by outsiders as spoils to be exploited, reinforcing dependency rather than empowering Iraqis. Reconstruction projects and economic aid are often tied to foreign conditions, entrenching influence rather than fostering independence.
For Iraqis, the ballot box is not only about representation but about reclaiming self-determination. Each election is a test of whether democratic practice can withstand the pressures of foreign agendas. The challenge for the next government will be to navigate coalition politics while resisting external dictates — ensuring that decisions about Iraq’s future are made in Baghdad, not Washington.
This week’s vote therefore stood as both a reaffirmation of democratic resilience and a reminder of the unfinished struggle for sovereignty. Iraq’s path forward will depend not only on parliamentary arithmetic but on the ability of its leaders and people to shield the country from foreign interference and to assert that its resources, politics, and destiny belong to Iraqis alone.
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