Jacinta Allan is in a battle royale to keep her job

Jacinta Allan was in royal company, sharing a toast and pleasantries with the King and Queen of Denmark within the lush surrounds of the Royal Botanic Gardens, when a message flashed across her phone that members of her own party were plotting against her leadership.

Within minutes of scanning the contents of the first reports, she was abruptly transported from the grace of “Our Queen Mary” back to the grind of state politics, where leadership speculation is now likely to be a constant companion.

Allan and her supporters are braced for a continuing campaign of destabilisation by Labor figures outside the parliament and a small group of MPs increasingly panicked about losing their seats when Victorians go to the polls.

Allan and a roll call of senior ministers on Thursday batted away as “idle gossip” the first salvo of what is expected to be a barrage in the weeks leading up to the May state budget, with the premier dismissing the source of speculation as “a few scallywags out there who might need a bit of a cuddle”.

Allan’s leadership was publicly endorsed by the two aspirants considered next in line for her job, Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams from the Left faction and Deputy Premier Ben Carroll from the Right.

Carroll said he already had the job he wanted. Williams said: “My support is purely behind the premier and the wealth of experience and expertise that she brings to her role.”

This did not stop her from being touted by colleagues as holding the key to whether the campaign against Allan amounts to little or escalates into a full-blown leadership challenge.

“My suspicion is Jacinta won’t be there at the election, but Gab has got to make the decision,” said one Labor figure with knowledge of the internal party machinations. “As the person who would have the most support in the Left, she has to make a decision whether she is going to run or not.”

If Williams does not seek the leadership for herself, her endorsement would be decisive in any challenge. “She would have to be involved one way or another,” the Labor figure said. A successful challenge would need the support of the Right faction and a split in the dominant Left.

A backer of the destabilisation campaign suggested that a group of MPs who crossed from the Right to Left faction with former treasurer Tim Pallas and Environment Minister Steve Dimopoulos after the 2022 election, could back a challenge. Dimopoulos has angrily denied this to colleagues and has made clear he supports the premier, trashing the speculation as “absolutely ridiculous”.

Williams has meanwhile expressed her frustration to colleagues about repeatedly being linked to leadership speculation. There is no suggestion that either Carroll or Williams were involved in leaking purported research to the Herald Sun newspaper claiming Labor was on track to lose 20 seats at the election.

The Victorian ALP has distanced itself from the polling claims. Internal party research is shared only with the party’s head office and premier’s office. Former ALP campaign director Kos Samaras denied rumours that the polling quoted by Allan’s detractors was conducted by his Redbridge group.

He described any move to oust Allan as “political suicide”.

“They are not going to solve their problem by rolling her because the one positive contrast they have with the Liberal Party is they don’t chew through their leaders,” Samaras said.

“The problem for Labor isn’t Jacinta – it’s voters sitting in the other columns who aren’t happy with the government. They as a team need to work out how to fix that.”

Several Labor MPs contacted by this masthead said the outbreak of leadership speculation was driven by an apparently small number of parliamentary colleagues – all of whom deny any active involvement – along with Left faction and union bosses convinced that Labor cannot win the next election under Allan.

They predict the campaign will continue each time another damning poll result is published or when the caucus gathers in Spring Street while parliament sits. “There are a minority seeking change,” one MP said. “I’m sure we’ll have the same discussion next sitting week.”

But one thought the premier could be just one more story away from a challenge.

More broadly, the combination of 12 years in government, a fractious electorate punctuated by the unexpected rise of One Nation, a persistent high cost of living, Allan’s deep unpopularity as premier and her inability to manage the fallout from the corruption scandal plaguing government major project sites have created fertile conditions for a leadership coup. Her personal approval rating had slumped to -37 in the last Resolve poll published by this newspaper, with only one in five respondents nominating her as their preferred premier.

The premier had survived open talks during last year’s federal election campaign that she could drag down the vote in Victoria, where federal Labor had unexpected success and bought Allan more time. But doubts about her leadership persisted and became furtive in the last few weeks.

One MP from Allan’s Socialist Left, who fears losing their seat in November, described the mood as not at a crisis point, but not happy, either. Even her supporters express frustration at the government’s direction.

Any Labor MP who holds their seat on a single-figure margin could be out of a job if voting intentions expressed in published opinion polls are reflected in the election result.

Labor’s Socialist Left faction, which expanded under former premier Daniel Andrews at the expense of the Right, would need to fracture to give the Right enough support to topple Allan’s leadership. But within the Right, there are MPs and ministers who still profess loyalty to Allan.

One senior Right faction figure said a leadership change at this point would mean certain political death. “We just have to keep the show on the road,” they said.

Another MP from the Left called on their colleagues to get back in line. “This government is like your favourite sweater. It’s in pretty good shape, but all it takes is one idiot to pull a thread.”

The Coalition, which has for many years been riven by its own existential disunity, sought to exploit Labor’s unease in question time, where Jess Wilson bypassed the premier and directed questions about corruption on government building sites to Carroll and Williams.

Carroll ruled out the need for a royal commission into Big Build corruption while Williams, who has portfolio responsibility for Big Build projects, did not.

Under Labor Party rules, instituted following the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd instability, a successful spill motion would need to go to state party members if the vote is contested.

The best news for Allan is there are only eight sitting weeks remaining until the end of this parliament. There are also plenty more polls on the way, including the next Resolve Political Monitor survey, to be published in a month’s time.

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