Leaving so soon? Premier, we were just getting to know you

“When I am 64,” prime minister John Howard hinted in May 2003 when asked about the longevity of his leadership. That was two months out from his birthday, a milestone that he signalled might be when he would start to ponder his political future. But if Howard did turn his mind to it on July 26 that year, nothing came of it.

Howard was prime minister for another four and a bit years until voters booted him from office.

NSW Premier Chris Minns did the opposite to Howard this week, without so much as a prod. And no one can quite work out why. Most leaders are coy, even dishonest, about their planned leadership timeline. Minns openly foreshadowed the end of his.

Those comments will come back to haunt him until next year’s election and beyond.

On Monday, Minns stood at a building site for the new metro station at the northern end of the CBD. He was marking the end of an era, or at least the last breakthrough of the final boring machine into the cavern beneath Hunter Street.

A reporter at the media conference posed a benign question to the premier. What was Minns’ “dream for how this city looks” in 2032, when that section of the metro opens. Legacy questions are standard for leaders but Minns’ response was not. “Well, I won’t be here,” he began, “at least in this role. But look, as a citizen, I genuinely hope that we can make a massive impact in housing affordability for young people.”

There will be an election in March 2031, so the immediate assumption to Minns’ brutal honesty was that he had outlined the timeline for his political future and that would mean, at best, he had only one term left in him. In reality, he was signalling an exit far sooner than 2032. He could be a citizen by then? That would suggest he’ll run again for Kogarah at the election next March, but not at the 2031 election.

Minns stunned everyone by saying the quiet bit out loud. A long-time Labor strategist, who has been watching NSW politics closely since the Bob Carr days, has a theory. Aside from being dumbfounded that Minns put himself into a position where he could be painted as a lame-duck premier, the strategist says voters would be stumped because they are only just getting to know him.

State leaders rarely capture the attention of voters until a national disaster or tragedy unfolds. If handled well, it can be the making of them. We saw this with former NSW Liberal premier Gladys Berejiklian after the Black Summer bushfires in 2019 and then the pandemic.

Before those events, Berejiklian was respected but not loved. By the time she left the top post, with a corruption inquiry hanging over her head, she was beloved by voters. Even a later finding confirming corruption, thanks to her dodgy ex-boyfriend Daryl Maguire, did little to change voters’ minds.

Minns has had a similar rise in popularity. His handling of the horrific Bondi massacre on the first night of Hanukkah in December has boosted his stocks. While Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was not welcomed at the funerals of the Jewish people killed in the attack, Minns not only attended most memorials but was welcomed with opened arms.

There are internal ructions within NSW Labor over his approach to anti-protest laws, and many party faithful fear he has alienated Sydney’s large Islamic community, but there is no denying that Minns has lifted his profile and his popularity.

So why would a seasoned communicator allow himself to walk into a situation where he has telegraphed to those voters who are finally getting to know him that he has one foot out the door? As well as putting doubt into voters’ minds about his long-term plans, Minns also created unnecessary chatter about his possible successor.

Education Minister Prue Car is the most likely. Car is Minns’ deputy and obvious heir apparent, but she is no Peter Costello. While Howard and his long-term treasurer were always thought to have a gentleman’s agreement on succession plans, no such deal exists with Minns and Car. She has had some serious health challenges, including a recent battle with breast cancer, so Car is no certainty.

Other leadership names touted include Health Minister Ryan Park and Planning Minister Paul Scully. After those three, the options thin out quickly.

Nobody asked Minns to muse on the timing of his departure from politics. So was it a slip of the tongue or deliberate? The morning after his surprise remarks, he appeared on his regular segment with 2GB breakfast host Ben Fordham. He did not walk them back.

“I try to be honest,” Minns told Fordham on Tuesday. “If people ask a straight question, I try and give a straight answer … if I put it in reverse and said, ‘I’ll definitely be here in 2032’, everyone will be, like, this bloke is so up himself.”

It was a refreshing, if not strange, take. Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane immediately pounced, releasing an awkward social media video gloating that the premier was pulling up stumps early. She will not let that line of attack go, and nor would Minns if an opponent gifted him a similar opportunity.

But perhaps Minns’ gamble will pay off. Dishonesty has never quelled leadership chatter in the past. Maybe honesty, and admitting the job has an expiry date, will work in Minns’ favour, not against it?

Alexandra Smith is state political editor.