Malinauskas on the cusp of victory as One Nation hit by election day scandal

Labor is on the cusp of a commanding election victory in South Australia, as a late-campaign scandal engulfing One Nation threatened to derail the minor party’s surge and reshape the final day of an already lopsided contest.

As the polls closed at 6.30pm (AEDT), Premier Peter Malinauskas appeared set to secure a second term in a landslide, buoyed by strong polling and a fragmented opposition. But the election’s closing act was dominated by the dramatic dumping of One Nation candidate Aoi Baxter over allegations he is wanted by the authorities in the United Kingdom.

The controversy erupted on Friday after it emerged Baxter – also known as Trent Baxter – had allegedly failed to attend court on a sexual touching charge. A representative from the crime division of His Majesty’s Courts and Tribunals Service confirmed to the ABC that Baxter had “a warrant for arrest without bail [for] not attending the court” in the UK.

“Should you know of his location, it would assist the court and relevant authorities,” the court officer said, adding that the charges related to an alleged breach of the Sexual Offences Act tied to events on September 25, 2023.

Within hours, One Nation moved to disendorse Baxter – who was running for the seat of Adelaide – and conceded the issue had not been disclosed during candidate vetting.

“Mr Baxter is no longer a One Nation candidate as a result of this news,” the party said in a statement.

“One Nation conducted a nationwide police check on Mr Baxter as it does with all candidates. No issues were discovered. One Nation will co-operate fully with law enforcement regarding this matter.”

The party said it had been unable to contact Baxter.

South Australian One Nation leader Cory Bernardi said the development was a shock at the worst possible time.

“We also expect the integrity and honesty of our candidates. In this case, he wasn’t forthcoming,” he told The Advertiser.

“It’s disappointing to have this sort of mishap at the end of a good political campaign but, once again, as soon as we’ve found out, we’ve taken the appropriate action.”

Baxter declined to speak to Nine News when approached to discuss the substance of the allegations.

“I believe in innocent until proven guilty, that’s all I’m going to say at the moment. I will be putting out a full statement,” he said.

For Malinauskas, the episode reinforced long-held criticisms of the party, even as he sought to keep Labor focused on its campaign message. Labor has long dominated South Australian politics, winning five of the past six state elections and governing for 20 of the past 24 years.

“I’m not at all surprised,” he said of One Nation while on the campaign trail. “This is a political party with a track record of anywhere it goes – dysfunction reigning supreme. Rarely do we see people sticking with One Nation – they tend to leave, quit, change parties – that’s certainly been the history in South Australia.”

The scandal landed at a critical moment for One Nation, which had emerged as the campaign’s most disruptive force. Opinion polls have placed the party on between 22 and 28 per cent of the primary vote, ahead of the Liberals on 14 to 20 per cent, in a dramatic reshaping of the state’s political landscape.

A final YouGov poll released on Friday pointed to a decisive Labor victory, forecasting a 59–41 two-party-preferred result against both the Liberals and One Nation – a 4.4 per cent swing in the government’s favour.

Labor – which holds 29 of 47 seats in the state’s lower house – is expected to dominate Adelaide, winning more seats from the Liberals (currently on 13), but One Nation is also tipped to poll strongly in the city’s north where Labor’s safest seats lie. Thirty-three of the state’s seats are in the metropolitan area.

Despite the late setback, federal leader Pauline Hanson insisted the party’s grassroots momentum remained strong, with the party a strong chance in several lower house seats – including Narungga, Hammond, Flinders and Ngadjuri – and to potentially claim two upper house seats.

“I’ve been here for the last week, and at a polling booth now … the on-the-ground feeling is extremely strong,” she told Sydney radio station 2GB.

The Liberals, led by Ashton Hurn, have struggled to cut through. The party has grappled with a collapsing primary vote and competition from One Nation for conservative support. It has endured several scandals, including a cocaine scandal surrounding former leader David Speirs, who quit parliament after a leaked video was published by The Advertiser showing him snorting white powder off a plate. Speirs pleaded guilty to two counts of supplying drugs last year.

Clement Macintyre, an emeritus professor of politics at Adelaide University, said the election could mark a broader turning point, with One Nation’s surge reflecting a growing base of disaffected voters.

“If they do make a breakthrough, they’re going to have to work hard to be a more serious and viable alternative government,” he said.

“It’s more frustration with the major parties … I think we can still say One Nation is a party of disaffected voters.”

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