Nvidia stock sends valuation signal for first time in 13 years

Nvidia (NVDA) stock’s latest selloff just sent an unusual signal, and one which investors haven’t seen in years.

After the stark AI-driven selloff in tech stocks, Nvidia effectively broke a 13-year pattern of trading at premium valuations, ahead of the S&P 500.

After its recent slide, as per reporting from Barrons’, it’s now trading at nearly 19.7 times forward earnings, just under the S&P 500’s roughly 20.3 times, a steep reversal after years of premium pricing.

That shift comes at a time when Nvidia’s fundamentals continue to impress, delivering explosive results across key top- and bottom-line metrics.

Clearly, given the recent developments, investors are questioning what comes next, particularly whether its massive AI spending will translate into sustained returns.

On top of that, growing competition, heavy reinvestment, and troubling customer concentration are adding to the tremendous uncertainty.

That said, I recently covered Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s blunt take on the company’s future, where he said a $10 trillion valuation is not far-fetched.

He framed Nvidia’s growth as “inevitable,” underscoring the tremendous increase in AI-driven demand and expanding compute economics.

In that context, Nvidia’s valuation reset might be less about weakness and perhaps more about the market recalibrating expectations following a tremendous run.

What’s happening with Nvidia stock isn’t happening in isolation.

More Nvidia:

Investors aren’t willing to pay for peak multiples for AI stocks, even for those businesses that deliver stand-out growth.

We’re seeing that change show up across tech.

The sector’s forward P/E has dropped to around 21, the lowest in three years, mirroring the broader market. However, earnings expectations haven’t weakened with the consensus still pointing to nearly 42.5% growth in 2026.

That disconnect between falling valuations and relatively strong fundamentals is what makes thing stand-out.

Nvidia sits at the heart of that tension.

It’s still delivering solid numbers, including a smashing Q4 revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% from the prior-year period, along with data-center sales of $62.3 billion, up 75%, and full-year revenue of $215.9 billion, up 65%.

Additionally, at the GTC event, it announced that its AI chip revenue could reach as much as $1 trillion through 2027.

Nevertheless, investors are focused on what comes next. When expectations are sky-high, even strong results aren’t enough to move the stock higher.

Related: Morgan Stanley sends clear message on semiconductor stocks after selloff

• Over the last 1 month, Nvidia returned -5.46%, compared with the S&P 500’s -7.41% and the Magnificent 7’s (represented by Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF) -9.62%.

• Over the last 6 months, Nvidia returned -5.99%, compared with the S&P 500’s -4.14% and the Magnificent 7’s -12.70%.

• On a year-to-date basis, Nvidia returned -10.18%, compared with the S&P 500’s -6.96%; Magnificent 7 YTD data was not shown in the image.

• Over the last 1 year, Nvidia returned 50.34%, compared with the S&P 500’s 11.87% and the Magnificent 7’s 17.86%.

• Over the last 3 years, Nvidia returned 531.41%, compared with the S&P 500’s 60.12%. Magnificent 7 data was not shown in the image.

• Over the last 5 years, Nvidia returned 1,204.75%, compared with the S&P 500’s 60.24%; Magnificent 7 data was not shown in the image.

• Over the last 10 years, Nvidia returned 19,333.87%, compared with the S&P 500’s 212.82%; the Magnificent 7 data was not shown in the image.
  Source: Seeking Alpha.

• Nvidia’s tremendous valuation run really starts off in mid-2023. It briefly cracked the $1 trillion markon May 30 and then cemented its place in history as the first player to close out a trading day above that mark on June 13.

• By Feb. 23, 2024, the stock doubled that feat, briefly touching$2 trillion as Wall Street treated Nvidia as the clear bellwether of the generative-AI era.

• The next leap came quickly when Nvidia surged to a $3 trillion valuation on June 5, 2024, and in less than two weeks, it surged to $3.35 trillion, knocking off Microsoft from its perch as the world’s most valuable public company.

• In July 2025, Nvidia rewrote the history books again, becoming the first company to ever close above $4 trillionas AI spending kept lifting top-line expectations along with investor appetite.

• Its high-water mark so far came on Oct. 29, 2025, when Nvidia became the first company to reach $5 trillion, ending the session around $5.03 trillion.

Nvidia’s stock chart still looks mostly bruised.

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The stock closed out at $167.52 on March 27, as per Seeking Alpha, rounding off another forgettable week.

Looking at the stock chart on Yahoo Finance, we see it comfortably below its  20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $173.31, 50-day SMA of $175.15, 100-day SMA of $179.33, and 200-day SMA of $182.43, a simple yet clear sign that the trend is still pointed lower.

Moreover, let’s look at the relative strength index (RSI), a momentum gauge in assessing Nvidia stock’s positioning.

Currently, the 14-day RSI is 28.35, which is remarkably weak and points to the stock getting close to oversold territory. On top of that, the MACD, which compares short- and long-term momentum, is -2.34 (flashing a sell signal).

As per Barchart, the key levels look mostly clear.

Near-term support sits around the mid-$160s, with additional downside levels in the low-$160s if we see selling pressure pick up.

On the upside, though, resistance starts off in the high-$160s, effectively building through the low-$170s, along with a more meaningful ceiling around the mid-$170s. After that, the next big test comes in the $180 range, where several critical moving averages are clustered.

Related: Cathie Wood sells $2.1 million of megacap tech stock

This story was originally published by TheStreet on Mar 29, 2026, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.