One Nation hunts down the Coalition, but voters give Taylor some ground

One Nation has drawn level with the Coalition for the first time, setting up a fierce battle for Australia’s conservative vote and making clear the enormous challenge confronting newly installed leader Angus Taylor.

In the first published poll since Taylor deposed Sussan Ley as the Liberal Party leader, support for One Nation has surged to 23 per cent of the primary vote – although voters appear willing to give Taylor an opportunity to turn things around, backing the Coalition under Taylor by three more percentage points than under Ley.

Asked how they would vote in either of two scenarios – one with Ley leading the Coalition and Taylor as leader in the other – voters handed One Nation 25 per cent of the primary vote to Ley’s 20 per cent, whereas Pauline Hanson’s party’s votes were split evenly at 23 per cent with a Taylor-led Coalition.

In either case, the Coalition’s support has continued to slide from 28 per cent in January to another record low, while One Nation surges from 18 per cent last month. Labor, meanwhile, regained some ground against a Taylor-led opposition to earn 32 per cent of the primary vote.

Taylor inherits an opposition that must convince Australians it can outperform the Albanese government on cost of living, with 92 per cent saying it would affect their vote, and 45 per cent ranking it as their number one concern. Immigration – identified by Taylor as a clear policy priority – and refugees (10 per cent) was the only other issue to reach double figures.

The findings, conducted by Resolve Political Monitor from February 8 to 14, canvassed 1800 respondents during the final days of Ley’s leadership and the first days of Taylor’s. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 per cent.

With One Nation and the Coalition neck-and-neck on 23 per cent voter support each, this masthead has chosen not to highlight the two-party preferred vote. Only a seat-by-seat two-candidate preferred vote count could indicate which seats One Nation could potentially win, given the party’s support is typically concentrated in a smaller group of seats.

The findings also highlight the ongoing collapse in support for the major parties.

Just 51 per cent of voters said they would vote for one of the two major parties while Ley was still leader, while 49 per cent of people said they would vote for other options, including One Nation, the Greens or other independents.

With Taylor as leader, the major parties slightly increased their overall vote share to 55 per cent while “others” secured 45 per cent. At the last election, about one third of voters voted for independents and minor parties.

Acknowledging they must urgently claw back support, the new opposition leader and deputy Jane Hume said on Sunday they wanted to return the party to its traditional focus on economic management.

In this simplified chart, One Nation’s rise to match major parties is rapid.

Resolve pollster Jim Read said One Nation’s vote had risen to such heights that calling it a “minor party” was no longer a useful distinction.

“In Ley’s final week, Hanson’s party overtook the Coalition, and it’s only when we measure primary vote with the change to Taylor factored in that they draw level again,” he said.

“The task ahead of the new opposition leader is Herculean. The reset has allowed him to regain a couple of points from One Nation, but he has to do that another ten times before he even begins to compete with Labor.”

Taylor secured a plus 3 percentage point likeability rating, reflecting his status as a new leader, compared to a net likeability rating for Albanese of minus 12 percentage points and minus 11 percentage points for Ley. Andrew Hastie, who had also considered a challenge to Ley before withdrawing, had a likeability rating of plus 4 percentage points.

When voters were asked to nominate their preferred Liberal leader from a group of five names, 19 per cent named Ley, 10 per cent named Taylor, 13 per cent chose Hastie, 4 per cent of people nominated frontbencher Tim Wilson and former deputy Ted O’Brien secured just 3 percentage points. More than half those polled – 52 per cent – said they were unsure or had no preference.

Ley was the most popular pick among Labor, Greens and Coalition voters – though she had the benefit of incumbency – while among One Nation voters, Hastie (26 per cent) was the stand-out choice, followed by Taylor (15 per cent) and then Ley (10 per cent).

Pauline Hanson secured the highest net likeability ratings of plus 7 percentage points while David Littleproud and Chris Bowen were the two least-liked politicians after Ley and Albanese, scoring minus 8 percentage points each.

After 13 years as an MP, 61 per cent of respondents said they had heard of Taylor and 32 per cent had a neutral view of the new opposition leader, suggesting he has time to shape his story on his own terms, even as Labor digs up old controversies from his time as a Morrison-era energy minister.

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