‘One or two votes in it’: Littleproud’s deputy in tight battle with Canavan

Nationals MPs are expecting a tight result in today’s ballot to replace David Littleproud as leader, with current deputy leader Kevin Hogan tipped to have the edge over Senator Matt Canavan.

Hogan’s supporters believe he has at least eight guaranteed votes heading into the 10am party room meeting to elect a new leader. Hogan’s backers, led by Darren Chester and Pat Conaghan, include the same group of MPs who supported Littleproud: Sam Birrell, Jamie Chaffey, Anne Webster, Michelle Landry, Andrew Willcox and Littleproud himself.

Canavan’s support is coming from the party’s more conservative MPs, including Colin Boyce, David Watt, and Lew O’Brien, as well as senators Ross Cadell and Susan McDonald.

Michael McCormack was considering running but is unlikely to do so. He is expected to support Canavan.

Bridget McKenzie will run but is expected to finish third and support Canavan when the vote comes down to Littleproud versus Hogan.

“There’s one or two votes in it,” one MP said.

Contenders will deliver speeches in the meeting in Parliament House on Wednesday, and Canavan, who has been taking the fight up to One Nation on migration and energy for months, may shift some soft votes towards him is he inspires his colleagues. Some MPs are uncomfortable with a senator leading the party because leaders usually come from the House of Representatives.

Littleproud stunned nearly all his colleagues when he quit after Question Time on Tuesday.

Only Hogan, Littleproud’s loyal deputy who has not previously been viewed as a candidate with the energy and drive to lead the party, was told in advance. Hogan was told of Littleproud’s decision early on Tuesday.

One MP said the decision to tell Hogan early and hold a ballot the morning after Littleproud’s call appeared designed to give Hogan the best chance of winning.

More to come.