The 98th Academy Awards take place this Sunday (March 15) and one of the most unpredictable categories is Best Actor, with one star now the favourite to take home the win
With the 98th Academy Awards looming this Sunday (March 15), anticipation is mounting over who’ll walk away with the coveted statuettes, and one of the trickiest categories to predict this year is Best Actor. Vying for the honour are Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon).
Experts are branding the Oscars category as “virtually anyone’s to win”. Whilst Chalamet appeared to be the early frontrunner, a string of eleventh-hour surprises and fluctuating momentum have transformed it into an exceptionally unpredictable race. The Best Actor competition has witnessed a “split awards” season without a single clear-cut champion, as four separate actors have claimed the major precursor prizes.
Michael B. Jordan is the latest major victor, clinching the Actor Award at the SAG-AFTRA on 1 March 2026. This triumph is regarded as a substantial “upset” over early-season favourite, Timothée Chalamet.
Meanwhile, Chalamet dominated the initial awards circuit, bagging both the Critics Choice Award and the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy.
Wagner Moura also secured the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama, establishing himself as a formidable international challenger, whilst Robert Aramayo (I Swear) emerged as the shock BAFTA winner for Leading Actor in February.
At present, Michael B. Jordan has overtaken Timothée Chalamet as the bookies’ favourite for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards.
This change came about after Jordan’s triumph at the SAG-AFTRA Actor Awards, an event often viewed as the most accurate bellwether of Oscar victory.
It appears that fans are also backing Jordan for the accolade, as they debated potential winners on Reddit.
One individual initiated a discussion asking for thoughts on who might clinch the award, posting: “Right now the two contenders are Michael B. Jordan and Timothée Chalamet. Jordan winning SAG matters, but SAG is a very American voting body. The Academy is significantly more international.”
Another Reddit user forecasted: “Michael B. Jordan will likely win. He won the Actor (SAG) and is in a top 2 film. He’s older than Timmy, which matters for best actor, because they don’t often award younger men.
“Marty Supreme isn’t as strong as Sinners and isn’t win competitive in any other categories. I don’t see any reason why international voters would rally around Timmy or Marty Supreme. It didn’t win anything at BAFTA and Sinners did.
“Timmy has Golden Globes and Critics Choice but those have no crossover with the academy and are not always reliable predictors. Timmy losing sag and bafta suggests that he will not win, especially considering he is young and in a film that is not win competitive in any other category.”
Another chimed in: “I don’t even think it matters that much who was second at BAFTA, because at the end of the day Chalamet lost BAFTA.
“Which means he didn’t even get the visibility for the award, and i’m not talking about the acceptance speeches, but the official announcement that he won an important industry awards like that, heard by everyone, Academy voters included.
“Jordan instead won SAG, an industry award on a crucial window for the acting race, and he leads the top 2 BP contender, and many people like to forget that he was second in the critics wins, very close to Chalamet.
“Regardless of silly last minute controversies, i think Michael is winning.”
A third weighed in: “This is exactly right. Math isn’t the key reason why BAFTA influences the Oscars. It’s the momentum and visibility. Michael is the only lead actor nominee who has had recent momentum and visibility and he had it during Oscar voting.
“He has that on his side on top of being in the stronger film. History shows the vast majority of times the SAG and Oscars differ is because the SAG winner was from the weaker film and the Oscar winner was from the stronger film. If Chalamet won the Oscar this year he’d go against that pattern. I just don’t see that happening”.
“Had Timothee won the BAFTA I’d say he still has the numbers in his favour, but with the industry awards not holding firmly on Timothee anywhere, we’re about to see Michael B. Jordan pull it off and win.”
A fourth concurred: “Michael B Jordan is winning period!”
Yet not everyone was convinced. Another observer commented: “Sticking with Chalamet. I’ll go down with the ship.”
Meanwhile, another viewer commented: “Agreed. I thought MBJ was Oscar-worthy but Chalamet gave what I would consider a tour de force performance. I’m honestly surprised he isn’t head and shoulders the favourite.”
A third weighed in: “Even though I like Sinners a little more than Marty Supreme, I actually feel like MBJ had the weakest performance in the category and I’m kind of surprised he’s the frontrunner.”
Either way, anticipation is building to discover who’ll claim the coveted trophy on the evening!
UK audiences can catch the 98th Academy Awards live and completely free on ITV1 and ITVX on Sunday, 15 March 2026. Scottish viewers can also tune in via STV and the STV Player.
Oscar 2026 nominees for the main categories
Best Picture
- Bugonia
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- The Secret Agent
- Sentimental Value
- Sinners
- Train Dreams
Best Director
- Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
- Ryan Coogler – Sinners
- Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
- Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
- Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
Best Actor
- Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
- Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
- Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
- Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
- Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Best Actress
- Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
- Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
- Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
- Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
- Emma Stone – Bugonia
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: mirror.co.uk
