The Worst Super Bowl Predictor In America is on a hot streak.
I got one right.
Last year, remember? How could I let you forget?
As the Philadelphia Eagles were in the process of demolishing the favored Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points, I was screaming in front of the stunned and somewhat embarrassed faces of those sitting around me.
“I called this! I had this! I knew this!”
Strange but true, a couple of days earlier in my 26th annual Super Bowl prediction column, I had penned the following sentence.
“I’m picking the Eagles in a beatdown, and listen to me, this time I’m right.”
For only the eighth time in 26 tries, I was indeed right. Despite a prediction record that once included 11 consecutive wrongs, I was right. Amid a prediction history that featured 13 wrongs in my first 16 years — how does that even happen? — I was right.
By finally choosing substance over style, stats over sentiment, the best team over the best story, I was right.
So I’m doing it that way again.
In this matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots. I hate one of these franchises with a passion.
It doesn’t matter.
I detest that one of these franchises once cheated its way to numerous championships while arrogantly daring anyone to stop them
It doesn’t matter.
The pro football experts pretty much agree with me, their distaste for this franchise leading to its renowned owner and legendary coach being snubbed in in recent voting for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Still, none of it matters.
Like nearly everyone else outside of New England, I hate the Patriots.
But I love, love, love them on Sunday.
I love their coach, their quarterback, their coolness, their momentum, their journey without the conniving Bill Belichick. I love their small edge in virtually every area of the game, all of which will lead to a big upset by a 4.5-point underdog.
I hate that they will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday night in Santa Clara, especially since longtime villainous owner Robert Kraft will be doing the hoisting, but when you’ve gotten this pick wrong as many times as I have, you have to sacrifice personal feelings for what’s obvious.
On Sunday night, the dominance of the Patriots will be obvious.
Start with the momentum. The Patriots are the hottest of the two teams, having won 16 of their last 17 games. Despite all the criticism of a soft schedule, this includes three consecutive playoff victories against teams with 11-plus wins
The Seahawks? They are lucky to be here after an incredibly fortunate postseason run against two teams they were playing for the third time. They stomped an injury-plagued San Francisco 49ers team then defeated the Rams in an NFC title game that was quite possibly decided by the Rams’ Sean McVay’s refusal to kick a late field goal.
Next, I love that the Patriots’ hot streak is based on defense, as they have allowed one touchdown or fewer in each of their last five games.
The Seahawks? Their defense gets all the hype, but the Rams scored 27 points on them just last week and should have had more.
I also love the Patriots offense and its ability to create this important stat called, “explosive plays,” which are defined by TruMedia as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 16-plus yards. In an era where one only needs to get to midfield to give these big-legged kickers a chance, these plays are huge. And in this game, the Patriots are bigger, ranking fourth in the league in this stat while the Seahawks rank eighth.
The Seahawks might have the explosive play king in receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba — he was the second-best receiver in football this year behind Puka Nacua — and they have a surging running back in Kenneth Walker III. But with the loss of Zach Charbonnet, the Seahawks offense doesn’t have much else.
The Patriots, meanwhile, have everything, with six different players accounting for double-digit explosive receptions according to NFL.com while Rhamondra Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson pack a dangerous one-two running punch — 19 explosive runs each — that can wear down even the Seahawks staunch tacklers.
Finally, I love the Patriots quarterback more than I love the Seahawks quarterback. There. I said it.
I think Drake Maye is less capable of blowing a big game than Sam Darnold. There. I meant it.
Darnold may be the first USC quarterback to start in the Super Bowl — an amazing stat — and he may be the pride of San Clemente High and all of Southern California and everyone I know will be cheering for him.
But the dude gives the ball away. He led the league with 20 turnovers — 14 interceptions and six lost fumbles — and it doesn’t matter that he has been nearly perfect in the playoffs. The stats don’t lie. The sample size is not small. Darnold is long overdue for another stinker, and it will happen here against a Mike Vrabel-coached defense that will simply outsmart him and defensive-minded Seahawks’ coach Mike Macdonald.
Yes, Maye also lost six fumbles but he only threw eight interceptions and was much cooler in the pocket, perhaps because he possesses one weapon that Darnold is missing. Maye can run. His scramble saved the Patriots in the AFC championship game and it will save them again.
According to NFL.com, Maye led the league’s quarterbacks in scrambles. During the playoffs he has averaged 13.9 yards on nine scrambles, a potentially devastating dagger in his arsenal. Considering the Seahawks defense allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, Maye’s legs could be a game-changer.
Meanwhile, Darnold couldn’t run if his career depended on it, so he stays in the backfield and gets blasted. During the regular season he was among the six worst quarterbacks under pressure, throwing as many picks as touchdowns — six — while proving to be this team’s weak link.
Certainly, he was wonderful in his last two games. But neither foe had a great quarterback pressure defense while the Patriots ranked fifth in the league in that category.
Believe your eyes. Prior to those last two games, when his best has been needed, Darnold hasn’t been at his best. The nine sacks against the Rams in last year’s playoffs. The four interceptions and 45.5 passer rating against the Rams earlier this season.
Darnold is a great story. He is this game’s best story. But is he a championship quarterback? The eye test says no. And in this new era for The Worst Super Bowl Predictor In America, the eye test matters.
Among the numerous examples of bad judgment in this annual column, one currently jumps out. Not once during the Patriots’ six Super Bowl championships did I pick the Patriots. Not once. Zero-for-six. It’s an embarrassing statistic that I’m going to finally fix.
I hate the Patriots, and I hate doing this, and maybe down deep I’m thinking, given my prediction record, if I pick them they’ll lose and wouldn’t that be dandy?
But, sorry America, they’re not going to lose.
New England 27, Seattle 24, ugh, yuck, sigh.
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Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: latimes.com
