Russian foreign minister says ‘still a long way to go’ in Ukraine war peace talks – Europe live

Estonia’s foreign intelligence service has released its annual assessment of the global security situation this morning, with a heavy focus on the threat from its neighbour Russia.

The forecast says Russia is unlikely to launch a conventional attack against Nato states over the next year but to continue with various forms of hybrid warfare.

It contradicts recent US claims that a deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine is close, saying there is no sign Vladimir Putin is interested in real negotiations.

I joined a briefing with Kaupo Rosin, the head of the service, who said:

“We see that Russia is setting long-term operational objectives in the war against Ukraine. This confirms that the so-called peace talk rhetoric is merely a tactic to buy time, and Russia has no intention of ending the war until its objectives are achieved.”

On claims from Trump administration officials that a deal in peace talks is close, he said:

“I do not know what the US assessment is based on. Putin would only make a proper deal in our view, if the economy or financial sector takes very heavy hits with, for example, additional sanctions, which would be directed towards oil and gas industry… If additional measures and pressure are applied, then maybe Putin’s calculus changes. But currently, we do not see any change in his thinking.”

On Russia’s economic prospects over the coming year, Rosin said:

“We see that Russia’s economy has entered a downturn, this is fuelled by defence sector expanding at the expense of the contracting civilian economy and sanctions that amplify low productivity caused by outdated technology. While an economic crisis is a possibility, the total collapse of the Russian economy remains highly unlikely. A more plausible outcome is that financial considerations will carry much greater weight in political decision-making than before.”

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said that there was no reason to be enthusiastic about US president Donald Trump’s pressure on Europe and Ukraine as there was still a long way to go in talks on peace in Ukraine, Russian state-owned news agency RIA reported.

His comments just days after what the US, Ukraine and Russia said were difficult, but constructive talks in Abu Dhabi, but suggest that reaching a final agreement could be very difficult.

Russia still pursues its original maximalist demands, including territorial claims to control Ukraine’s eastern regions, and continues to oppose the prospect of Ukraine ever joining Nato or ever hosting western troops as part of security guarantees.

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address yesterday that “reliable security guarantees are the only real foundation for peace,” as he warned that Russia could test it any peace settlement through strikes or “hybrid operations of some kind.”

In the meantime, Russia continues its strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, with an energy facility in the soutern Black Sea region of Odesa hit overnight, even as the country continues to be gripped by cold temperatures.

Elsewhere, we will be looking at the ongoing discussion on how to improve European competitiveness ahead of this Thursday’s informal EU summit on the issue, the latest on the EU-US trade deal which was briefly put on hold, and other topics from across the continent.

It’s Tuesday, 10 February 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.

Good morning.