Shock and awe is dead: What Russia understood – and Washington still doesn’t

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Decades of military doctrine crumble as Tehran controls the Gulf and time runs out for Washington

A day and a half before the expiration of his 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, US President Donald Trump unexpectedly announced negotiations and even a possible meeting with Iranian officials. Rumors quickly circulated that the meeting would take place in Pakistan, with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner representing the US side, while Iran would send either its foreign minister or a parliamentary speaker. Following the announcement, oil prices plummeted.

Shortly afterward, Iranian officials dismissed the reports, confirming only that they had received certain proposals from the US through intermediaries. However, they labeled everything else as fake news aimed at manipulating financial and oil markets. Oil prices began to rise again.

Neither peace nor war

In the initial commentary on the Iran conflict, we speculated that the US and Iran might seek peace within a month.

Iran’s statement does not mean there is no contact with the US or that a meeting isn’t being planned; it’s possible that Tehran is simply trying to boost its position.

On the one hand, Iran has Trump in a bind and could potentially dictate terms, or at least attempt to do so. 

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