Some European flights are cheap again, but are they safe to book?

Middle Eastern airlines have begun lowering airfares for Australia-Europe services to pre-war prices as they try to revive near-dormant tourism through key transit hubs, but experts warn the cheap flights are risky and could leave passengers stranded or stuck with travel credits.

Airspace over the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, through which a significant chunk of Australians transit on their way to European and other destinations, ground to a halt earlier this month as Iran began striking its regional neighbours in retaliation to US-Israel attacks.

It left thousands of Australians stranded in cities such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha – the respective hubs for Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways – as missiles rained down on population centres. Fatalities and injuries were reported inside airports, which have been directly struck by Iran or by debris. Limited flight operations have since resumed as airspace disruptions eased.

However, the US-Israel war on Iran has led to a spike in demand for seats with non-Middle Eastern airlines, particularly those based in Asian cities or those that can offer services to Europe flying eastwards.

Australians have reported being sold tickets on routes that avoid the Middle East for multiples more than normal prices, including economy tickets selling for thousands above pre-war prices. Additionally, the strangling of crude oil movement through the Strait of Hormuz, and subsequent spike in jet fuel costs, have made airfares more expensive.

Airlines such as Singapore Airlines and Turkish Airlines have been able to continue their operations similar to pre-war, largely avoiding the need to reroute around airspace closures. Meanwhile, Chinese-based carriers – which have for years been among the cheapest tickets between Australia and Europe – continue to be able to fly over Russian airspace that other airlines pay more in fuel to avoid.

Now, Middle Eastern carriers, facing uncertainty as to when hostilities and airspace disruptions will end, have begun aggressively lowering prices for Australians travelling to Europe in an attempt to woo back safety-conscious travellers with deals thousands of dollars cheaper than rival carriers.

Last week, Etihad was offering return economy flights between Sydney and London via Abu Dhabi for as little as $1570, for trips departing as soon as the first week of April, despite services on the route this week being cancelled. Etihad flights for the same dates between Melbourne and London are even cheaper, at $1460.

Elsewhere, Qatar Airways – whose Doha base is still subject to severely limited operations due to the war – is selling flights later in April between either Sydney or Melbourne and London or Paris, via Doha, for about $1700 return in economy.

Prices for both Etihad and Qatar Airways continue to drop in May, with Dubai-based Emirates also lowering its prices throughout the month. Emirates fares between Sydney and London are available for about $1800, and about $1900 from Melbourne.

Such routes all require transiting through airports in Middle East countries subject to broad “do not travel” warnings from the Australian government.

Meanwhile, return economy flights with other carriers operating via Asian transit hubs, or through the United States, are selling for between $2600-$3800 for the same dates.

Jodi Bird, a travel expert at consumer advocacy organisation Choice, said that because the transit cities were all subject to Australian government “do not travel” classifications – even for those just transiting through without plans to leave the airport – most travel insurance policies would exclude claims if flights were disrupted.

“It would be quite a risk for people to book to travel through the Middle East at the moment,” he said.

Bird said that while airlines took care of stranded customers initially with quick refunds or rerouted tickets, this could change as war sets in and customers book knowing the risks.

“Our concern is that longer term, if people are booking through the Middle East and their flight gets cancelled, they could get stuck with credits for quite a few years.”

Ian Douglas, a senior lecturer at the University of New South Wales’ School of Aviation and at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, said that while their ability to operate all scheduled flights remained uncertain, carriers such as Etihad, Emirates and Qatar Airways wanted to try to keep bookings flowing and some operations running.

“If they just vanish off the booking networks completely, it would be difficult to build back up.”

“My sense is that they want to be positioned in the market so that if there is a ceasefire or end to hostilities, that they could move fairly quickly back to what they were flying.”

Douglas said safety concerns about flying through Middle Eastern airports, including news stories of terminals being hit by drones and civilian casualties in Dubai and other cities with a reputation for safe, luxury tourism, would be front of mind for travellers.

Carriers, and their hub cities, have suffered reputational damage regarding uncertainty and safety, he said. As such, the airlines – which are backed by oil-wealthy states – could afford to absorb losses and be aggressive on pricing to win back customers.

The strategy comes as governments in the region, who had invested significantly in expanding their airport hub reputation into a luxury travel destination, grapple with dwindling tourism numbers.

Last week, the New York Times reported that foot traffic at malls in Dubai, known as a playground for the wealthy, have slowed to a trickle, reportedly triggering fear among luxury fashion labels whose stores in the tax haven count rich expats and travellers as key customers.

Early in the war, an Iranian drone strike also triggered a fire at the famous Burj Al Arab hotel, where premium suites can cost more than $25,000 per night.

Given such developments, slashing airfares made sense for the state-owned carriers, Douglas said.

“It’s about reestablishing that traffic and saying not only are we flying, but that you can safely come for a stopover,” he said.

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