A high-speed rail line between Newcastle and Sydney would be delivered in three stages under ambitious plans detailed in a business case for the mega project, which envisages the first services starting by 2037.
Under the preferred option, operations between Newcastle and the Central Coast would start within the next 12 years, followed by those to the Sydney CBD by 2039, and Parramatta and Western Sydney Airport by 2042.
An artist’s impression of a high-speed railway station in Australia.Credit: High Speed Rail Authority
The plans by a federal rail authority, which proposes that construction begin in 2027, include stations at Broadmeadow in Newcastle, Lake Macquarie, the Central Coast, the Sydney CBD, Parramatta and Western Sydney Airport.
Of the 191 kilometres planned, 115 kilometres would be in tunnels, 41 kilometres on surface tracks and 38 kilometres over bridges and viaducts.
After evaluating the business case for a dedicated high-speed link, Infrastructure Australia is supporting the Newcastle-Sydney section of the broader project for a line along the east coast to progress to a development phase focused on improving certainty about costs and benefits.
It has also recommended that, in parallel, further work be carried out on the entire project, building on the analysis in the business case.
Plans for a staged opening of a high-speed line from Newcastle to Western Sydney Airport via the Sydney CBD.Credit: Infrastructure Australia
The evaluation has excluded the estimated cost of building the line due to concerns that would jeopardise a bidding process.
Cost estimates in confidential modelling by the NSW government three years ago estimated a new line from Sydney to the Central Coast would cost up to $32 billion.
The High Speed Rail Authority, which completed the business case late last year, is seeking federal government funding for a two-year development phase for the first two legs: Newcastle to Central Coast and then onto Central.
That development phase would refine the design and a cost estimate for the project, as well as secure planning approvals and preserve a corridor for the line.
Render of a business-class carriage on a high-speed train.Credit: Federal government
Infrastructure Australia said a higher level of cost certainty was needed to inform decisions about investing in the project.
“Given the large amount of tunnelling and the new rail systems, we expect costs to vary considerably as design maturity improves,” it said.
The nation’s peak adviser on infrastructure said it was not possible yet to make a confident assessment of the project’s cost-benefit ratio until there was more certainty about its cost.
Analysis by the High Speed Rail Authority shows it is only under low-cost or high-benefit scenarios, which include land use uplift and wider economic boosts, that the benefits of the proposed Newcastle-Sydney line would outweigh the bill.
The main benefits spruiked by the rail authority are in housing supply, followed by reduced journey times between key locations. It estimates the project would spur an extra 46,000 households due to improved transport links.
However, Infrastructure Australia said it had “low confidence at this time” that the forecast housing benefits will be realised.
About 60 per cent of the entire line would be in tunnels, mostly between the Central Coast, the Sydney CBD and Western Sydney Airport. Tunnels would result in slower train speeds – up to 200 kilometres an hour – than on the rest of the line. Trains running through the tunnels would be about 40 per cent slower.
The rail authority advised that higher speeds would require tunnels to have a significantly larger diameter, but that it would have a minimal impact on end-to-end journey times between Sydney and Newcastle and would not justify extra costs.
Shorter tunnels between the Central Coast and Newcastle would be designed for maximum speeds of 320km/h.
A high-speed line is estimated to cut travel times between Newcastle and central Sydney to about an hour, from two hours and 25 minutes. The route from Newcastle to Western Sydney Airport would decrease to about 90 minutes from three hours and 26 minutes.
Infrastructure Australia noted that a Newcastle-Sydney line would entice only about 5 per cent of people to switch from travelling by car to high-speed trains.
“These outcomes, together with the risk of realising housing uplift, challenge the objectives of the national [high-speed rail] project, requiring further substantiation that the Newcastle-to-Sydney section should be delivered first,” it said in the evaluation.
The federal government has prioritised a Newcastle-Sydney link as the first stage of a dedicated high-speed line along the country’s east coast due to its population density, inter-regional travel and its potential to spur economic and housing development.
The evaluation noted significant risks related to delivering the project due to the scale and complexity of the preferred option.
About $79 million of the $500 million committed by the Albanese government to plan for and protect a corridor for a high-speed rail line between Sydney and Newcastle was spent on the business case.
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