Consumers who have booked summer trips away are increasingly finding that domestic and international flights have distinct price dynamics, with the most competitive fares being offered to travellers heading overseas.
Capacity and demand for international aviation has exceeded pre-pandemic levels and continues to “grow strongly”, Australia’s competition authority said.
Air Asia has opened a new route between Melbourne and Bali.Credit:
Meanwhile, seat capacity for domestic travel has remained just below 2019 levels, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission said. That capacity is provided almost entirely by Qantas, Jetstar and Virgin.
“The differences between the domestic and international market mean that domestic travellers are more likely paying more for airfares than they otherwise would with effective competition,” an ACCC spokesperson told this masthead.
Melbourne CEO Lorie Argus, Delta Airlines Asia-Pacific chief Jeff Moomaw and Victorian Industry Minister Colin Brooks (right) after Delta landed its first flight from Los Angeles to Melbourne on December 6.Credit: Chris Zappone
For international travellers, “The continuing growth in seat capacity … combined with the number of competing airlines, is more likely to prompt airlines to provide better deals for travellers,” an ACCC spokesperson said.
Aviation analytics company Cirium’s Asia editor Ellis Taylor said that with the market tight and demand high, domestic pricing was going to be “towards the upper end [and] it will probably stay that way until we get to mid-2026”.
There will still be some opportunities for domestic sales, but “they’re getting fewer and further between just because there’s not a lot of excess seats that airlines need to shift”, Taylor said.
Flight Centre Corporate international airfare data on departures from Australia, analysed by FCM Travel, show that in the year to November 2025, domestic prices rose 0.7 per cent to $550 a ticket, more than half the current average international economy ticket of $1000.
Bali-bound: A weaker dollar combined with more international competition has supercharged capacity to Bali.Credit: Jason South
“Competition and increased capacity are good for customers because they are levers to drive down ticket prices, especially in the international sphere,” said Jason Kramer, global air leader at FCM Consulting. “Thanks to the introduction of airlines like Qatar Airways and the growth of USA carriers like Delta Air Lines, the flow-on effect for passengers is more affordable airfares.”
Even falls appear more pronounced on international flights. Flight Centre Corporate data showed that from December 2023 to December 2024, domestic tickets saw a 2.7 per cent decrease, to about $510 a ticket. International economy seats, meanwhile, dropped on average from $975 in December 2023 to $950 in December 2024, a full 4 per cent decrease.
The pricing dynamics of international airfares combined with the relatively muted strength of the Aussie dollar, at about US67 cents, and ongoing cost-of-living constraints have sent Australians booking to Asian and Pacific destinations where the currency will stretch further.
They are helped not just by Australian-based airlines such as Jetstar, which has 435 planned flights scheduled to arrive in Bali in December. Counting all airlines, including TransNusa, Garuda, Batik Air, AirAsia and Australia’s three major airlines, there are more than 2212 flights scheduled between Australian cities and Bali (including the all-important Perth to Bali route) in December, Cirium numbers show.
Routes where there are a number of low-cost carriers served by Air Asia, Cebu Pacific and Scoot are the ones that are going to offer better deals, Taylor said. The other area to look for good international fares are on routes that are just being launched, he said.
“That’s often the best time to grab a holiday, particularly on those markets where it’s a bit more competitive or you’ve got two or three airlines.”
Low-cost carrier AirAsia announced it will fly daily between Melbourne and Bali from this month, with an introductory one-way fair of $199.
Launch pricing can also set off its own dynamic. “If there is some launch pricing going on, then another airline may respond on that,” Taylor said.
When Fiji Airways announced direct flights from Cairns to Nadi in 2024, it coincided with a sale.
Meanwhile, airlines continue to launch new routes. In Melbourne, this month alone, Delta has launched its first direct flight to Los Angeles. It coincides with Hong Kong Airlines and Shenzhen Airlines launching a route to and from their respective cities, of Hong Kong and Shenzhen, this month.
Virgin Australia, under its wet-lease agreement with Qatar Airways, launched its first Melbourne-Doha flight, rounding out four services to Qatar a day from Sydney, Brisbane and Perth. United’s inaugural flight between Adelaide and San Francisco took place on December 11, adding to United’s service from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.
From Sydney, Qantas is running seasonal flights to Sapporo’s New Chitose Airport to help Australians get to Japan’s snowfields.
International carriers are piling on more capacity in premium seats too. Delta’s A350s offer four classes, including 40 premium Delta One suites, for Melbourne fliers.
Delta Air Lines’ Asia Pacific vice president Jeff Moomaw said Australia is seen by his airline as a “fantastic market”, with strong demand for premium travel and other services.
“It’s why we’ve been able to increase our service to Oceania,” Moomaw told this masthead in the shadow of a Delta A350 that had just landed at Melbourne’s airport.
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