The issues Essendon must address to finally rise from the doldrums

At Brad Scott’s first public appearance as Essendon coach in 2022, he spoke of the need for unity at a club that had excelled in tearing itself apart.

“If you’re not united, and you’re not going in the same direction, I don’t care what players you’ve got, [or] what facilities you’ve got – none of that matters,” Scott said.

In his fourth season at “the Hangar”, those words will be put to the test again.

Not even the most optimistic Essendon supporter is expecting their side to play finals this season. Scott, himself, acknowledged after the heavy defeat to Hawthorn that there’s an obvious gap between the Bombers and the competition’s best teams.

The result against the Hawks was no surprise, though the abject manner in which they were defeated has sparked alarm at how far they could plummet and whether they have cut too deep with their list.

Club great Matthew Lloyd’s dismay at the meek manner in which the Bombers’ defence crumbled summed up the feeling among success-starved fans.

It’s 70 games into Scott’s tenure, and the Bombers are still years away from being a premiership contender. These are issues they need to address.

The Merrett saga

One of Essendon president Andrew Welsh’s first tasks in the job was to draw a line in the sand on the future of then captain Zach Merrett, who desperately sought a trade to fierce rival Hawthorn.

In the latest twist in the ongoing saga that is Merrett’s future, the Dons have tabled a multi-year, multi-million deal that would keep the six-time Crichton medallist in the red and black into his mid-30s.

The ideal result for Essendon is their best player signs and commits long term, putting the issue to bed. If not, they risk a repeat of last year’s trade period circus, which came despite Merrett having two years remaining on his contract.

A list manager at another team, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk about a rival side, said the Bombers need to make themselves a club that players want to play for.

This requires hope on the field, and stability off it, he said. Keeping a player against his will is problematic for many reasons, not least because it impacts a club’s capacity to sell itself to prospective recruits.

Who at Essendon, the list manager asked, is someone a trade target would want to play alongside and learn from, apart from Merrett? If there is no commitment from Merrett, what environment would the recruit be brought into?

There is enough recent history to suggest players who want out eventually get their wish. Joe Daniher, Josh Dunkley and Christian Petracca found new homes after their initial trade requests were rebuffed, though all landed at a different club to their original preference.

The draft blues

Essendon are paying the price for a raft of misses from the 2017-22 national drafts under former list boss Adrian Dodoro. Of the 22 players the club picked in this period, only eight remain in red and black. Matt Guelfi, with 121 games, has donned the sash the most. He played in the VFL on Friday night.

Nic Martin and Sam Durham, who both should have long careers, are diamonds in the rough from mid-season drafts, but the elite talent comes from the draft. The group from 2017-22 should now form the core of the Bombers’ team. Twelve players from last year’s All-Australian team came from these draft classes.

The 2020 draft, when they had picks eight, nine and 10, is proving particularly costly. Of their three top-10 picks that year, Zach Reid has the highest upside if he can overcome persistent injuries. Ben Hobbs, a first-round pick from 2021, was delisted last year, and the jury is still on out on Elijah Tsatas, pick No.5 from 2022.

Such has been their list turnover, only 19 players remain from 2023, compared to 26 for Brisbane. The Bombers have debuted 20 players since Hawthorn’s last debutant.

There is high hope from their past three drafts, headlined by Nate Caddy and Archie Roberts from Dodoro’s last draft in 2023, Isaac Kako in 2024, and their class of 2025.

The Bombers have also invested more in player development after the recommendations from the external review in 2022, and overhauled their strength-and-conditioning program to combat their annual injury epidemic.

Under the watch of list boss Matt Rosa, the Bombers now have the second-youngest list and are feeling the short-term pain that is the side effect of long-term growth.

The rival list manager said, if the Bombers managed their list well, they could play and win finals in two to three years. If not, he said, it could take another 20.

The defensive holes

Essendon’s woes in defence are not new. Their inability to defend the ground was an issue former coach Ben Rutten could not fix, and continues to plague them under Scott.

According to Champion Data, apart from North Melbourne, no team has been easier to transition against from rebound 50 to inside 50 than Essendon since 2012.

In Rutten’s final year, the Dons ranked 16th for points against, points conceded from turnover and percentage of times teams’ score when they get into their defensive 50, and 17th for goals for inside 50s conceded. Last year, when ravaged by injury, they sat 16th, 17th, 13th and 15th, and 15th in those areas.

There was an element of Groundhog Day against Hawthorn. Adelaide put 161 on them in round two last year, and the Hawks were similarly prolific. On both occasions, 12 months apart, they allowed their opponent to retain possession through uncontested marks and were repeatedly opened up. The VFL side gave up 163 points on Friday.

Lloyd was scathing in his assessment of the defeat to the Hawks, describing it as a “horror loss”.

Leading analyst David King ran damning vision on Fox Footy’s First Crack program highlighting the lack of defensive intent shown by senior players Merrett, Mason Redman and Jye Caldwell.

“This is classic Essendon,” King said. “Nothing will change until their attitudes to defence change, or their standards change.”

Against Adelaide, Scott lamented a lack of pressure. This week, the reasons were similar.

“We’ll go to work again on defending transition – which was a theme in the pre-season – but it was exposed on the weekend, we’re clearly not where we need to be in that space,” Scott said.

Brad Scott’s future

The pressure is building externally on Scott in his fourth season.

Fans, who have not seen a winning final since 2004, are impatient. Many were on the platform at Richmond Station by three-quarter-time of the season-opener. This is not a scenario they would have accepted if it was offered when Scott signed days after the 2022 grand final.

The club, though, is behind Scott, who was given a one-year contract extension 12 months ago (to see him through to the end of 2027). His supporters point to the cultural changes and club-wide reset the coach has overseen, and the decisions he has made for the long term to his short-term detriment.

The Bombers will undoubtedly be stronger if Jake Stringer and Jayden Laverde were still there, but the club is setting up for sustained success over the mid-table finishes from the period preceding Scott.

The cost of sacking a coach in-contract is significant. It eats into the soft cap, limiting club expenditure on other football department areas such as assistant and development coaches. It also creates instability, which, as the rival list boss pointed out, contributes to making it more difficult to sell the club to prospective recruits.

What about James Hird?

The ghosts of Essendon’s past still hover at Tullamarine.

Welsh galvanised the red-and-black faithful with his strong stance on Merrett. He has a connection to old Essendon from his playing days, but also commands respect from the rank and file for his courageous play across 10 years and 162 games, and his success in business.

His challenge will be to calm the Essendon community through the hard times that await.

Even before a ball was bounced this season, club great and former director Kevin Sheedy told News Corp he could see Bombers champion James Hird returning to coach the club. Hird last year categorically denied any interest in a coaching comeback.

Reports have also linked premiership hero Dean Solomon, who stepped off the board to join Scott’s coaching panel, to the top job.

No other club has as many of its greats in influential media roles like the Dons. Any backroom agitation will find a voice. Scott’s call for unity is as relevant today as it was on his first day.

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