The salary cap isn’t working. But that’s not why the NRL is becoming less even

After only a month of this erratic – even chaotic – NRL season, there are two guarantees compared to last year: the Panthers won’t be last at the halfway mark, and no team will “do a Canberra” and come from outside the elite eight to win the minor premiership.

The NRL’s great equaliser – the salary cap – is not fulfilling its purpose of maintaining parity across the code. We knew it was failing when Penrith won four consecutive premierships while, during the same period, Wests Tigers took the wooden spoon three times.

Eventually, Panthers playmaker Jarome Luai switched to Wests Tigers, suggesting that Penrith could not house all their superstars under their salary ceiling and the Tigers had ample space. But money wasn’t Luai’s highest priority. He wanted to lead. Yet, last week his young, highly motivated team defeated the unbeaten Warriors 32-14 away without him.

The Dragons are winless and adrift at the bottom of the NRL ladder, justifying the early prediction of coach Shane Flanagan that “we are not going to win the comp this year”.

Perhaps Flanagan’s pessimism was based on his conviction that the salary cap fails bottom clubs. The Dragons were forced to offer more money and a longer term to entice Keaon Koloamatangi away from South Sydney in 2027. The Rabbitohs had been burnt by the long-term deals signed by Greg Inglis and Sam Burgess, and couldn’t justify paying a middle forward $1 million when he would be 33 by the time the contract ended. Nor could Parramatta.

However, the Dragons, desperate for some strike in their forward pack, agreed to give Koloamatangi a fifth year in his contract. It is a decision akin to a deferred dental appointment causing greater misery down the road. Paying out $1 million plus to Koloamatangi in 2031 may mean less money to upgrade say, the Couchman brothers, Ryan and Toby.

Nor do the Dragons receive any concessions for developing juniors who sign elsewhere, such as the sons of club legends: Melbourne’s Tyran Wishart (father Rod), Bulldog Aaymon Fitzgibbon (father Craig) and Roosters twins Toby and Tom Rodwell (father Brett).

This season, only two major players from last year’s top-eight clubs have joined teams in last year’s bottom nine: hooker Reed Mahoney (Canterbury to North Queensland) and half Jamal Fogarty (Canberra to Manly). They replaced two Origin stars recruited from bottom-nine clubs to a top-eight ones – Reece Robson (North Queensland) and Daly Cherry-Evans (Manly) to the Roosters.

Money is only the third most important reason players switch clubs, according to a Rugby League Players Association survey.

“While 80 per cent of the general population cites money as the main driver for switching jobs, this was the case for only 21 per cent of NRL players and 11 per cent of NRLW players moving clubs,” RLPA chief executive Clint Newton said.

Newton cites a club’s culture, the opportunity to be a starting player, the coach and a club’s chances of success as other factors motivating players to switch clubs or stay put.

“Word spreads very quickly now if the coach of a team down the bottom of the table is any good, or what the high-performance structure is like, or whether the club culture is strong,” Newton said.

The reality is there are other factors determining the success or failure of clubs – some more important than the $12 million salary cap – especially with the taxman taking half the difference of any extra money offered to players.

The top clubs have the top coaches

An established coach at a club with long-term success, such as Melbourne’s Craig Bellamy, Penrith’s Ivan Cleary or the Sydney Roosters’ Trent Robinson, will attract players willing to play for less money. This is a powerful incentive with young, highly promising players who want to reach the top quickly. Lachlan Galvin left Wests Tigers because, according to his manager, he wasn’t progressing under coach Benji Marshall.

The NRL’s best forward, Payne Haas, will leave premiers Brisbane – coached by Michael Maguire, a grand final winner at two clubs – to join up with seven-times premiership winner Wayne Bennett at South Sydney. Haas prefers the Skinny Coach, whom he believes will extend his playing longevity by managing the number of games he plays.

Opportunity often outweighs money

Middle-tier players, consigned to replacement roles on the bench behind established stars, will seize an opportunity to switch clubs for a starting role, even if the money is less. Daniel Atkinson left the Sharks to wear the No.7 jersey at the Dragons, while the durability of the Storm’s veteran No.7, Jahrome Hughes, forced Jonah Pezet and Wishart to sign with other clubs – admittedly for starting halfback money.

Sydney clubs have an advantage

A player can move around the eight Sydney clubs without having to buy another house and uproot his kids from school. Cherry-Evans recently revealed he had offers from other clubs but chose the Roosters because his children could stay at the same school and his family could remain on the northern beaches.

Home is where the heart is

Representative forward Mitch Barnett will leave the New Zealand Warriors at the end of the season for “family reasons”, while 28-year-old Melbourne winger Will Warbrick will travel in the opposite direction for the same reason, joining the Warriors. Premiership forward James Fisher-Harris left the Panthers for the Warriors to be closer to his Kiwi family.

Clubs and players pressing the trigger prematurely

Increasingly, clubs are signing players for the following season before a ball has been kicked in the current one, often leading to embarrassment when the incumbent shines. Raiders hookers Tom Starling and Owen Pattie helped the club to the minor premiership in 2025 when the club signed Newcastle dummy half Jayden Brailey. In last week’s loss to the Sharks, Starling played 61 minutes and Brailey 19.

Similarly, the Roosters had young halves coming through but signed veteran Cherry-Evans, so Sandon Smith left for the Knights – where he led his team to a win over Canterbury last week.

Players can also eject prematurely. Grant Anderson left the Storm, where he was the third-choice centre, to join Brisbane, where he is also ranked No.3. Now, with Melbourne losing two grand final centres – Jack Howarth to groin-hip problems and Nick Meaney is playing on the wing – plus Moses Leo having played fewer than 10 rugby league games, Anderson would be the No.1 centre at the Storm.

Player managers can subvert the salary cap

The Storm still quote the ancient case of the manager who acted for stars and journeymen at the club. In negotiations with Melbourne, he insisted on a big fee for an Australian forward, while dismissing the others with the comment: “Pay them what you like.”

Players are better behaved

A decade ago, a highly paid player jettisoned for misbehaving would be quickly signed by a club desperate for an X-factor. The budget-strapped Sharks won the 2016 premiership with discards such as Ben Barba, Andrew Fifita and James Maloney, deemed to be troubled, or high-maintenance individuals. The NRL’s comically named “no-fault” stand-down clause has reduced these sorts of moves, which helped level the talent pool.