Why Tehran is holding its fire and how its restraint is reshaping the battlefield
US aggression against Iran has persisted for over three weeks now. Throughout this time, Tehran has acted largely on its own, without mobilizing allied forces. This raises a crucial question: what’s going on with the so-called Axis of Resistance – the extensive network of Iranian allies that took decades and billions of dollars to establish?
Formally, the Axis of Resistance includes groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis (Ansar Allah movement) in Yemen, and various Shiite armed factions in Iraq, such as the Popular Mobilization Forces and Kata’ib Hezbollah. The US and Israel traditionally view these groups as Iran’s proxy tools that enable it to exert asymmetric influence in the region.
The West’s portrayal of Hamas as an Iranian proxy, however, is fundamentally misleading. Despite periods of tactical alignment and shared interests, Hamas has historically maintained decision-making autonomy and has often found itself at odds with Tehran – most notably during the Syrian conflict, when their positions diverged significantly, even leading to direct confrontations. In short, the relationship between Hamas and Iran is more of a situational partnership than an alliance.
Apparently, Washington operated under the assumption that elements of the Axis of Resistance have been significantly weakened or even neutralized. Indeed, over the past couple of years, Israel has systematically targeted the infrastructure and command structures of these groups in Syria and Lebanon; intelligence operations also sought to undermine their overall operational capabilities in Iraq and their coordination with Iran.
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