This new waterfront suburb will reshape Sydney, but who will get to live there?

It’s not every day you get to build a new suburb on pristine waterfront that will reshape Sydney forever. Plans for Bays West – 8500 new homes on a stretch of publicly owned foreshore between Rozelle and Pyrmont – is the kind of city-shaping moment urbanists like me have long dreamed about. And for good reason.

Goodbye vast concrete car depot and grain silo eyesore and hello housing. A restored Glebe Island Bridge connection will finally stitch this part of the city back into the broader waterfront network. New metro and ferry connections will mean residents can easily live car-free. And the cherry on top is the revival of White Bay Power Station as a cultural and nightlife destination.

I can already picture it: a day out with family arriving by metro from western Sydney for a waterfront picnic. A bike adventure along the foreshore and over Glebe Island Bridge. A gig with friends at White Bay on a Friday night. The government deserves real credit for this vision.

The one remaining question is who will get to live there – not just visit. And right now, the answer is concerning. Because ambition and follow-through are not the same thing. And the gap between them at Bays West comes down to a single number: 10 per cent, the affordable housing commitment announced for the site. Before the election, Labor committed to a bold mandatory 30 per cent of all homes on surplus government land set aside for social, affordable and universal housing. Since then, they’ve wiggled creatively away from that, but this retreat deserves scrutiny.

The reason is usually the f-word – feasibility – that more affordable housing makes the project unviable. It won’t. Developers will still make their required margin because it comes down to how the land is valued: price the land higher and the budget benefits; price it lower and affordable housing can thrive. More revenue for the budget, or more homes for the people who need them, where they need them most. Right now, the case for the latter has never been stronger.

Essential workers are being pushed further from the communities they serve. A city where childcare workers set alarms for 3am to make it across town, and aged care workers drive hours each way to reach the people who need them, is not a city that works. When apartments here are expected to start at $2 million, the private market alone cannot fix this. If government doesn’t leverage more social and affordable housing here, then where?

We are sacrificing a working harbour to build this precinct – we cannot sacrifice working Sydneysiders too.

Sydney’s waterfront should belong to everyone, and the best of it feels that way. Urban renewal has given us Darling Harbour’s iconic water playgrounds and their mass appeal to children and young-at-heart grown-ups alike. The cascading people-filled stairs at the new Sydney Fish Market, the just-right 30-metre promenade at Barangaroo where runners, walkers and bike-riders peacefully co-exist even during weekend rush, and the gorgeous Marrinawi Cove, surely one of the most unique urban swimming experiences in the world.

These places are loved by people right across the city – from Blacktown to Bexley or Berala – because they were designed for everyone, not just those lucky enough to live nearby. Bays West should learn from what worked, improve on what didn’t, and be better than all of them by being deliberate in its design.

Being deliberate means a few things. A generous foreshore promenade with enough space for trees, seating and crowds. No, or very low, private car parking. Access to the full range of infrastructure a community of this size needs: childcare, schools and jobs, not just homes. Above all, it means holding to something closer to the original social and affordable housing commitment.

In other global cities like London, when government-owned land is fast-tracked for development, that commitment is never less than 50 per cent. Why is Sydney so different? I’m not asking for that. I’m just asking for a more ambitious target that means the nurse, the childcare worker and the cleaner don’t just serve this community – they get to be part of it.

Sydney has always defined itself by its harbourside ambitions. Circular Quay, Barangaroo, Darling Harbour, Pyrmont. Bays West can be the very best of that lineage by being bolder on affordable housing. The plans so far are good. They could be great. The government that had the courage to imagine this place has the power to get it right.

Estelle Grech is an urban planner focused on housing, equity and fairness policy at the Committee for Sydney.