This party has no MPs and no candidates. So why are NSW voters so infatuated?

It is one thing for a political party to be riding high in the opinion polls when it has candidates or, better still, MPs. It’s another matter entirely when the party has neither. That is, a hypothetical option. One Nation is precisely that for the voters who will elect the next state parliament in NSW.

We have watched as the right-wing fringe populist party has, in recent months, climbed its way up in the polls in the national context. Its leader, Pauline Hanson, has been a player – on and off – since her election to federal parliament 30 years ago. As the nation’s social cohesion has fractured, particularly since the Bondi massacre in December, Hanson’s force in politics has only gathered pace.

However, in the NSW parliament, the three MPs who once sat in the upper house under Hanson’s orange banner – Mark Latham, Rod Roberts and Tania Mihailuk – have long fled the party. One Nation has zero presence in Macquarie Street.

So why are almost a quarter of NSW voters, according to the latest Resolve polling, prepared to back Hanson’s chimera of a party as it stands in this state?

It is easy to assume disgruntled blue-collar blokes from the bush are driving One Nation’s rise. And, in part, they are. Australians are hurting. Threats of fuel shortages coupled with this week’s interest rate rise will only add to that. But political campaigners are keenly watching other demographics.

Labor strategists have a theory: voters who are too young to remember Hanson’s explosion onto the political scene – with her racist rhetoric that Australia was at risk of being swamped by Asians – are turning to One Nation. Some were not born when Hanson emerged. Even among those voters who are aware of her early racist rants, many Millennials and Gen Zs think Hanson has moved on.

Less bigot, more straight shooter.

There are also the completely disengaged voters who care little for politics and even less for the major parties. They are sending Labor and the Liberals a pointed message that they do not care for the political class. The big question, which may be partly answered on the weekend when South Australians go to the polls, is whether One Nation is a legitimate political threat to the major parties or a temporary protest vehicle.

Stuart Bonds, a mining mechanic form Singleton, is Hanson’s guy in NSW – so far on the federal stage. In the Labor stronghold federal seat of Hunter, he seized a significant 21.6 per cent of the vote for One Nation at the 2019 election. Last year, he finished second to the Labor candidate for One Nation, with 16.13 per cent of the vote.

Bonds still has a high profile in the Hunter region, helped by a prolific social media presence. And yet he is no Cory Bernardi (the leader of One Nation in South Australia) nor Barnaby Joyce, big conservatives names lured to Hanson’s party. Bonds has made it clear he’d be keen to run for the NSW parliament, most likely for the upper house, but nothing has been confirmed.

So a vote for One Nation in NSW remains theoretical for now.

After her 1996 political success in Ipswich, the 1998 federal election was the first time the major parties had to deal with Hanson and One Nation. Political strategist Lynton Crosby, who was federal Liberal director from 1997 to 2002, gave his insights after helping John Howard win that ’98 election. His analysis remains relevant today.

“Handling One Nation was always an axiomatic issue,” Crosby told the National Press Club. “Our research found that every time the media or others focused on Pauline Hanson, her support – and One Nation’s – would rise in the polls.

“For many Australians who did not agree with much, if anything, that she said, she earned points for sticking to her guns in the face of constant attacks. To hound her personally gave her the oxygen of publicity which was essential to her survival.”

Hanson must be loving the latest attention. Published polling is highlighting her ascendancy and for the first time in NSW. Resolve, the Herald’s pollster, has surveyed voters on One Nation. Almost one-quarter of NSW voters (23 per cent) said they would give their first preference to Hanson’s party. As you would expect, some of those votes have come from the Liberals and Nationals, who, combined, are on a primary of 25 per cent. But NSW Labor is also bleeding votes. The incumbents have seen their primary vote plummet 8 percentage points to 29 per cent.

Those results for One Nation – the party without a presence in NSW – are rattling both sides of politics.

Crosby had some advice 28 years ago. “The clue to dealing with One Nation was always in its policies,” he said. “Ultimately, it was policies like a 2 per cent easy tax [one flat tax to replace all others] and the advocacy of printing money to fix your problems, coupled with unacceptable attitudes on other issues which drove people away.”

Bonds says One Nation will be “everywhere” when voters go to the ballot box on next March 13. “If you live in NSW, you’ll have a One Nation candidate to vote for in your electorate,” he says, while One Nation will run several candidates for the upper house. But remember: as yet, it has announced not a single candidate.

Not only is a vote for One Nation in NSW hypothetical, for now, but there is no policy in sight. Will voters really stick with Hanson once the policies start flowing? Voters may be angry but they are not stupid.

Alexandra Smith is state political editor.

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