Tour Confidential: Tiger’s Masters chances, West Coast Swing takeaways, Rahm’s decision

Check in every week for the unfiltered opinions of our writers and editors as they break down the hottest topics in the sport, and join the conversation by tweeting us at @golf_com. This week, we discuss Tiger Woods’ chances of playing in the Masters, Jon Rahm’s curious decision and takeaways from the PGA Tour’s West Coast Swing.

Tiger Woods was on-site and even in the TV booth as the host for this week’s Genesis Invitational. Tiger spoke on a variety of topics and somewhat surprisingly said there’s still a chance he’ll play the 2026 Masters. Woods, 50, hasn’t played since the 2024 Open Championship as he’s been recovering from different injuries. But do you buy this? What’s the realistic chance you think he plays at Augusta National? Do you have a percentage chance you’d put on it?

Josh Sens, senior writer (@joshsens): The latest odds I saw from people who make a living setting them were 2-to-1. That seems reasonable. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him try to make a go of it. But I’d be a bit surprised to see him make the cut and walk for rounds.

James Colgan, news and features editor (@jamescolgan26): Judging based on his demeanor at Riviera, I’d couch him at a 61.25 percent chance of playing. I’m not sure he’d entertain [gulps] the Champions Tour as a legitimate competitive option unless he thought it meant that he might be able to USE the Champions Tour to start elsewhere. Like, for example, at Augusta National.

Josh Schrock, news editor (@Schrock_And_Awe): I buy that Tiger believes there’s a chance he can play, and he’s going to try to push it to be able to tee off at Augusta. I’d still put it at around 40%. He said he’s hitting full shots, but then pumped the brakes when Nantz said he could hit the kind of 7-wood Jacob Bridgeman hit into 11 on Saturday. He’s a maniacal competitor and wants to play. But the body has to be able to go where the mind wants, and it’s unclear where his body is in the rehab process. 

Speaking of those other topics Tiger touched on, what did he say over the past week that was of most interest to you?

Sens: I wasn’t exactly shocked to hear it, but I would say I raised my eyebrows when he said he hasn’t decided on a Ryder Cup captaincy. Deep down, you and I know he’s going to be the captain. And I think he knows it, too. Also: the idea that riding a cart on the Champions Tour appeals to him. Could you have ever imagined a young Tiger saying that?

Colgan: I was shocked to hear Tiger admit that the Tour is considering moving at least one of the two premier early-season PGA Tour events (Pebble Beach and Riviera) to August to accommodate the new schedule. That change would certainly fix the problem of California rain the Tour currently finds in February, but I wonder if it’d help make the “Playoffs” FEEL bigger, too. I know each of those events feels bigger now solely by proxy of their golf courses. I’m in favor.

Schrock: I agree with James, but I’ve also really enjoyed Tiger getting a little more introspective now that he’s 50. He talked about being single-minded in his work on the FCC because he wants part of his legacy to be creating a Tour that allows the next Tigers to thrive. Cool to see him peel back a layer and artfully address competitive mortality. 

On Sunday at Riviera, Woods watched Jacob Bridgeman take a six-shot lead into Sunday and edge Rory McIlroy and Kurt Kitayama by one to win for the first time on the PGA Tour. Bridgeman, 26, didn’t necessarily come out of nowhere — he was top 20 in all four of his previous starts this season — but what is it about his game that’s most impressed you during this run? Has he shown you enough to convince you this isn’t a fluke?

Sens: A fluke is when I compress an iron shot. Bridgeman is no fluke. A strong college career at a top golf program (Clemson). A bunch of top 5’s last year. In the second-to-last group last week at Pebble. There aren’t many Tiger career arcs out there. This is how most talented young players progress toward their first win. He was impressive across the board this week. Didn’t find a greenside bunker until the 16th on Sunday. Dead-eye putting and approaches. But I was especially struck by his demeanor on the homeward nine. McIlroy holing out for birdie on 12 might have rattled someone less composed. Bridgeman just kept on with his business.

Colgan: I will admit that, around the time he took roughly 43 hours to play the final hole from the ocean at Pebble Beach last week, I may have allowed myself to believe certain things about Jacob Bridgeman’s credibility as a PGA Tour contender. I may have even suggested that he replay the final hole in the nude as penance for his poor pace. His victory this week erased those feelings, and replaced them with the sense that he might be the Tour’s next J.J. Spaun — a guy who felt like he came out of nowhere when he started winning … but we probably should have seen coming all along.

Schrock: I think his composure on Sunday, especially as a seven-shot lead started to dwindle, was incredibly impressive. I thought when Rory holed that bunker shot on 12 that things might start to move fast and he could unravel. But he was impressively cool under pressure. Lest we forget, he made the Tour Championship last year and had to play well alongside Rory at the BMW to punch his ticket to East Lake. He has been playing good golf for a while now, and I won’t be surprised if he starts becoming more of a leaderboard fixture. 

Eight DP World Tour members were granted conditional releases to play LIV Golf events this year, although Jon Rahm did not apply. What does this mean, big picture?

Sens: A future LIV-DP merger. The DP World Tour needs money. The Saudis have that. LIV needs more competitive juice. The DP World Tour could help with that.

Colgan: I’m really confused by this decision. Barring Josh’s merger idea, Rahm seems to be betting that he’s important enough to earn a major Ryder Cup exception. The reality is that he IS, especially if you ask his RC teammates. But it’s one thing to rally the support of Luke Donald … and another entirely to stand squarely against a major tour and ask for special status. He knows the landscape better than I, and he certainly wants to be in Ireland in ‘27. But I’d love to hear his explanation!

Schrock: Honestly, it’s a fascinating gambit by Rahm. His friend and teammate, Tyrrell Hatton, who was in the lawsuit with him, paid the fine and bowed out. So now Rahm, who was paid however many millions upfront to join LIV, is going to bet that they’ll make a rule allowing him to be on the Ryder Cup team without being a DP World Tour member, instead of just compromising and paying the fines. It feels like it’s a decision that could cost Rahm things money can’t buy. I feel like the DP World Tour offered a reasonable olive branch, and I don’t see how this goes in Rahm’s favor outside of a merger. Is he important enough to the team to warrant a special exemption? Of course. But you already have Rory McIlroy, the leader of that team, saying he should pay the fine. Hatton, who was standing with him, has paid his fines. I’m also fascinated to hear his explanation and see where this goes. 

Goodbye, West Coast Swing, and hello, Florida. What did you learn over the last two months on the PGA Tour?

Sens: That the only way Scottie Scheffler doesn’t win most starts is if he gives the field a first-round head start. It’s been a strange few weeks, watching him struggle out of the gate.

Colgan: Scottie is still the best around … but the first round hiccups are weird. Xander Schauffele is trending again – that’s fun! And welcome back, Collin Morikawa! Golf is more fun with him in the conversation.

Schrock: I’m enjoying the Scottie spots guys one round bit that’s going on. It’s a nice wrinkle and further illustrates the gap between him and everyone else. Despite not winning, I think Rory’s game is in a really good place as we head toward Florida and the Masters. He made a ton of birdies at Pebble but hit a few into the ocean. There was no Ocean at Riviera, so the big numbers went away. Xander is trending, and Jordan Spieth believes he has tapped back into his putting magic, which can bleed into the rest of his game, or so his theory goes. The PGA Tour is in a good spot with API and the Players on deck.