Donald Trump’s likely casus belli for an attack on Iran – which would be the largest US intervention since the Iraq war – is fraught with contradictions, and his top advisers have been left to cover for him as the White House makes the case for intervention.
In his State of the Union address this week, Trump alleged that Iran posed a direct threat to the US and that the country was “working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America”. But that claim has not been backed up with evidence by the White House or the Pentagon, and US intelligence reports from just last year say that it would take Iran 10 years to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the US.
A public US defense intelligence agency assessment from 2025 says that Iran could use its space-launch vehicles to “develop a militarily-viable ICBM by 2035 should Tehran decide to pursue the capability”. But that threat to the US homeland, as laid out in the document, pales in comparison to the ones already presented by Russia and China, as well as other hostile states like North Korea.
And a separate annual threat assessment of the US intelligence community released by the office of the director of national intelligence in March did not address any direct military threat from Iran to the US homeland from its ballistic missiles programme at all.
In remarks to the press on Thursday, the US secretary of state and national security adviser, Marco Rubio, sought to square the circle by hedging Trump’s remarks without directly contradicting the president.
“They are trying to achieve intercontinental ballistic missiles,” he said, adding he wouldn’t speculate how long it would take. “For example, you’ve seen them try to launch satellites into space. You’ve seen them increasing the range of the missiles they have now, and clearly they are headed in the pathway to one day being able to develop weapons that could reach the continental US.”
Trump’s insistence on negotiating an end to Iran’s ballistic missile programme, which Tehran has called a “red line”, may be a key stumbling block in the talks meant to avert a war. The Iranian foreign minister called Trump’s remarks on the Iran’s ballistic missiles and its suddenly revitalised nuclear programme “big lies”.
Those include the claim by Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, a real-estate developer and longtime friend of Trump’s, that Iran was “probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material” during an interview with Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump. That came less than a year after the president claimed to have “obliterated” the Iranian nuclear programme during the B-2 bombing runs launched by the US last summer.
Once again the White House has had to backpedal, both boasting of its success in crippling Iran’s nuclear ambitions while simultaneously making the case for war. “Operation Midnight Hammer was an overwhelmingly successful mission that did, in fact, obliterate Iran’s nuclear facilities,” said Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary. “However, this does not mean Iran may never try again to establish a nuclear programme that could directly threaten the United States and our allies abroad; that is what the president wants to ensure can never happen again.”
Iran’s stockpile of missiles, the largest in the region, according to US intelligence estimates, does threaten Israel as well as a number of US bases in the region, including Al Udeid airbase in Qatar. During the 12-day war, Iran fired more than 550 ballistic missiles and 1,000 one-way attack drones, testing both Israeli and US missile defenses. About 43 were said to have penetrated the defense systems to hit their targets.
In the event of an all-out conflict, Iran could increase that number dramatically and potentially exploit shortages of US anti-air missiles to hit targets in Israel as well as US military bases throughout the region. Gen Dan Caine, the chair of the joint chiefs of staff, has told Trump that a new war with Iran could further drain US stockpiles of interceptor missiles that could be needed to counteract other future threats, including those from China.
Overall stockpiles of Iranian missiles are a subject of debate. Israeli officials recently estimated that Iran had 1,500 ballistic missiles and 200 launchers after the war with Israel, but that number has likely increased as Iran has sought to replenish stockpiles.
Crucially, the Iranian leadership sees those weapons as one of the only factors preventing a US or Israeli attack at the moment.
“Iran sees its ballistic missiles as a key bargaining chip and essential for deterrence, implying a need to preserve the force for future standoffs,” wrote Benjamin Jensen, the director of the Futures Lab and a senior fellow for the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: theguardian.com
