Everything is bigger in Texas, and that includes the UFC fights this weekend.
Expect a very long night of bouts this weekend as UFC Fight Night travels to Houston and is putting on an obscene 14-fight card, one of the largest we will likely see all year.
The UFC certainly prioritized getting finishes here, with nine of 14 fights expected to end inside the distance.
Below, we break down UFC Fight Night Houston, exploring best bets and picks that we’re targeting for the entire card.
UFC Fight Night Houston predictions
Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez
Two cardio kings face off in a five-round main event as former middleweight champion Sean Strickland matches up against up-and-coming Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez.
Hernandez is on a wild eight-fight win streak, taking five of his last six by finish, and will almost certainly be calling for a shot at Khamzat Chimaev’s title with a win.
Hernandez has strong cardio, submission skills, and decent wrestling as well, with the latter half being a legitimate threat to Strickland, who figures to have the advantage on the feet.
Strickland typically pushes forward against his opponents and leads the dance as a voluminous striker that comes forward, sometimes with reckless abandon.
The obvious worry here is wrestling; Hernandez is not one of those guys who rely on trips or clinch work to fall into his takedowns.
Hernandez has solid double-leg takedowns and clinch work. If and when this fight hits the mat, I suspect he will be dangerous with submission attempts, chaining moves together to find an opening.
Having said that, the line here is quite long relative to where these fighters are in their careers.
Strickland is the first championship-level fighter Hernandez has faced in his career, and he is very difficult to take down.
Importantly, Strickland is not “washed” by any means.
Strickland defends takedowns at a 76 percent rate and boasts a win over contender Nassourdine Imavov in 2023 and two close decision losses to former champion Dricus Du Plessis.
Imavov is now the No. 1 contender for the belt at middleweight.
I expect this fight to go the distance, coming in at -135 on bet365 Sportsbook, and you could do much worse than a bet on Strickland at +250, though I’d prefer you wager on that one live after round 1 to see how he fares with Hernandez’s initial takedown attempts.
PREDICTIONS: Fight goes the distance (-135, bet365) | Strickland ML live after round one
Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic
A hometown guy, Geoff Neal, has what oddsmakers project to be a get-right matchup against Uros Medic.
Neal comes in as a -205 favorite over at DraftKings, while Medic is coming back at +170.
I don’t have a big lean on this fight. Neal is fighting at home in Houston and is on the backend of his career, and has been open and honest about his battles with alcoholism.
It’s always good to speak up about problems in life, but from a betting perspective, it’s tough to bet money on someone who is talking about bad health habits while in the middle of a cage-fighting career.
Regardless, Medic is a massive step down in competition for Neal, who has fought the top of the welterweight division in recent years.
Take this fight to go over 1.5 rounds, coming in at +114 on bet365, and enjoy what should be an emotional homecoming for Neal.
PREDICTION: Fight goes over 1.5 rounds (+114, bet365)
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UFC Fight Night full card picks
Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa: Ige ML (+185, Caesars)
Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija: Delija by decision (+600, Caesars Sportsbook)
Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell: Pass
Zach Reese vs. Michel Pereira: Pereira ML (-159, BetRivers)
Chidi Njokuani Carlos Leal: Leal ML (-140, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Ode Osbourne vs. Alibi Idiris: Pass
Alden Coria vs. Luis Gurule: Coria wins inside the distance (+210, Hard Rock Bet)
Nora Cornolle vs. Joselyne Edwards: Edwards by decision (+145, BetMGM)
Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Punahele Soriano: Bet over takedowns for Soriano when lines are released.
Phil Rowe vs. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani: Lebosnoyani by decision (+320, BetRivers)
Jordan Leavitt vs. Yadier del Valle: Pass
Juliana Miller vs. Carli Judice: Fight goes the distance (+150, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: nypost.com
